Breaking Down Upcoming Precipitation Chances for New England

Troughing will generally dominate New England's weather over the coming weeks. This will keep periods of unsettled weather around, as the region will remain susceptible to waves of low pressure, cold fronts and Arctic Blasts. In the coming week, there are a few chances for some light snow/mixing to occur, though there are no powerful, high-impact systems on the radar at the moment.

The very next chance for some snow/rain showers will come throughout the day Saturday. New England will be caught between a northern stream piece of energy moving well north of the region and a more moisture-rich southern stream system that will pass well south of the benchmark. While these two systems will not interact as they'll stay well away from each other, they may help create a broad area of weak lower pressure over New England. With weak convergence and lift in place, some snow showers could result.

Any activity that develops will be spotty and light in nature, and plenty of places around New England will likely remain dry all day. Areas closer to the southern stream system will have the best chance at snow showers Saturday. This would be eastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island and southeast New Hampshire. No accumulations outside of spot dustings are expected. The South Shore and Cape Cod may be mild enough for mixing or rain showers.

Below: RGEM showing potential weather late Saturday morning:

The northern stream's cold front will dive through New England Sunday morning, which has led to a colder trend in Sunday's high temperatures. High pressure will briefly build into the region for the day Sunday before the next system zips through Sunday night into Monday morning. This will be a clipper-type system, and there's a surprising amount of spread in outcomes with this one at this time range.

This clipper-system will likely dive through the middle of northern New England Sunday evening, and exit into the Gulf of Maine during the pre-dawn hours Monday. This system will likely deliver a quick shot of some snow, mainly across northern New England, Sunday night. There remains some uncertainty in just how much snow may fall with this one.

The main reason for uncertainty with this system comes from potential strengthening offshore. Once the system exits New England into the Gulf of Maine, the question will become how much it can strengthen and how quickly. A majority of guidance shows the system passing out to sea with little strengthening and fan fare, which would result in scattered light flurries and snow showers, amounting to little, if anything.

There's a large enough minority in the other scenario that it remains on the table. That would be the system deepening more quickly in the Gulf of Maine, resulting in a period of steady snow, likely across central New England. This would bring the potential for a few inches of snow, and an overall longer lasting system. Either way, this will be a quick-hitter and low-impact event, but this range in outcomes at this time range certainly turns heads.

Below: Current probability of at least one inch of snow Sunday night:

The scenario of a deepening low occurring earlier is seen in low probabilities for several inches of snow. The probability of at least four inches of snow currently sits at 5-20% for a large swath of New Hampshire and Vermont. When the storm strengthens will be key, especially for eastern Maine, who may see a period of light to moderate snow Monday morning, just beyond the range of the graphic above.

Either way, it will be northern New England that will have the best chance for light accumulations with this one as these clipper-type systems tend to deposit their most snow on the northern side of the center of the low pressure system. With that said, the exact track of the system through New England will determine where snowfall sets up.

Below: Model runs for Monday morning. The 1st image (Euro) shows the system passing with little fan fare. The 2nd image (GFS) shows the low deepening in the Gulf of Maine with more widespread activity developing:

Another clipper system will likely skirt to the north of New England later Tuesday into Wednesday morning. With this system passing farther north, there is a lower chance of any appreciable activity in New England. Should it cross near the Canadian border, light snow showers may be on tap. If it crosses farther north, drier weather would likely win out.

The next, more organized, system looks to follow quickly behind this one. At this point, this system will likely involve an area of low pressure moving out of the Great Lakes and through western New England. As always, how this system plays out will come down to the track. Whether or not a secondary low can form will also affect precipitation type across New England.

Early trends favor an inside runner with the potential for mixing and plain rainfall across southern and coastal areas. More wintry precipitation would remain possible well north and west in the region. The farther north and west this system tracks, the warmer and wetter the system would be across the board. If a secondary low can form offshore, the system would trend colder. Being a week out with a large range in outcomes, we'll leave this one at that for now.

Below: Current probability of impactful winter weather next Wednesday to Thursday: