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Cold Nights Continue; Warm-Up Looks to Begin This Weekend for New England

A cold front will be passing through New England today, bringing a drop in temperatures and some scattered rain showers. A line of thundershowers may try to develop and move through southern and central New England in the afternoon. These won't be widespread or strong. They could produce a brief bout of heavier rain.


HRRR showing expected weather mid-afternoon:


After the front passes, an area of high pressure will build into New England from the west, allowing a cold northwest flow. This will allow for temperatures to tumble tonight into the upper teens and 20s to low 30s. The high pressure will be overhead Friday morning, bringing clear skies and light winds, which is optimal for nighttime cooling. Thus, another cold morning is expected on Friday.



With that said, the high pressure will also result in mainly sunny skies, which will allow for nice recoveries in the afternoons. While it will be cool on Thursday, with highs mainly in the 40s and 50s, Friday should get a notch warmer. The high pressure will shift to the east by Saturday, allowing a more southerly flow and giving temperatures another boost. An onshore flow will result in a sea breeze, keeping the coast cooler.


Weather map for Saturday:



By Sunday, a warm front will approach New England, bringing more mild conditions and an increase in clouds and perhaps some light, scattered showers Saturday night into Sunday. With high pressure remaining to the east, showers will be limited and very scattered in nature. There will be a better chance for showers the farther west you go Saturday night into Sunday morning.



Just how mild it gets on Sunday will come down to cloud cover. It will likely be mostly cloudy, but the more breaks in the clouds will allow for temperatures to warm. Even with the mainly cloudy skies, it's looking to get into the 60s for everyone except the Maine coastline. Areas that see more breaks in the clouds will have the chance to get into the 70s, mainly across the Connecticut River Valley.



Heading into Monday, we were watching for two factors to potentially limit temperatures: a sea breeze and a backdoor cold front. The backdoor cold front is looking less likely at this time. Without this feature, temperatures in western New England could soar well into the 70s and potentially make a run at 80° in the lower Connecticut River Valley if everything sets up right. Like Sunday, these highs for Monday may come down to the amount of cloud cover as it may remain a bit unsettled and mainly cloudy.


The other feature, being the sea breeze, will remain in the picture. A weak flow and high pressure remaining to the east will allow for a cool breeze to come off the ocean, keeping areas closer to the coast cooler. At this point, it looks like that sea breeze will likely limit coastal areas to the 60s. Monday may shape up to be one of those spring days with a rather large temperature gradient between western and eastern New England.


Euro model showing temperature departure from average on Monday afternoon. You can see a sea breeze looming large right along the coast. Northern and eastern Maine will also be cooler in this time (this may be overdoing the above average temps in northern Maine a bit):


While it may become generally more unsettled heading into the latter half of this weekend and into next week, the calmer pattern New England has been in is looking to continue with no impactful systems on the radar through the next week.


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