New England has been in the midst of a very dreary weather pattern thanks to a blocked up pattern involving a cutoff low sitting just to New England's east. This area of low pressure has been cycling a lot of clouds and showers across eastern New England. The million dollar question is exactly when does this less-than-ideal pattern end? While it will be with us for a little while longer, there is a light at the end of the tunnel.
This pattern is similar to the Omega Block that New England was stuck in at end of April and beginning of May. While this block is not fully an Omega Block, it's bringing New England the same type of weather. On top of this pseudo-Omega block, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is entrenched in a negative phase.
Without going deep into the very complex nature of NAO, a negative phase favors the east coast being cooler and unsettled while a positive phase favors warmer weather. With all that said, here's a look at the week's upcoming weather and when this pattern breaks down:
TUESDAY
Tuesday will see a big step back toward normal temperatures for most. This step is only temporary, however. Clouds look to begin to break apart across eastern New England overnight. Depending on how much the clouds break apart, eastern Massachusetts, southern New Hampshire and southwest Maine could see temperatures break past the 70 degree mark. Northern New Hampshire and much of Maine will see increased clouds and scattered showers, which will lead to cooler temperatures.
Forecast cloud cover at noon Tuesday. Clouds will build back in as the afternoon goes on.
Isolated showers will likely break out across southern New Hampshire and Massachusetts in the late morning through the afternoon. Some thunderstorms could also break out, with the highest chance for thunder being in southern Vermont, southern New Hampshire and western Massachusetts. These storms could produce hail, but severe weather is not expected. Western New England will see more of the same of what they've been seeing since Saturday.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY
New England returns to below average conditions for Wednesday through Friday as a cold front is dragged across New England. The cutoff low that has been sitting near Nova Scotia moves northeast slightly. This gives the front, and an associated area of low pressure, just enough space to make it through New England.
This set up will allow for continued showers in northern New England. Southern New England will see mainly dry conditions. Some brief pops of sun will also be possible, although temps will stay cool regardless of the amount of sun.
Weather map for Wednesday. You can see our stalled cutoff low in the area of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. You can also see the cold front offshore of New England by 8am Wednesday:
WEEKEND (JUNE 10-11): THE BREAKDOWN!
Saturday is where the light at the end of this dark, gray tunnel can be found. The blocking pattern looks to begin breaking down late this week. This will allow that stalled cutoff low to finally start pushing east, away from New England. This will allow drier, sunnier and warmer conditions to enter back into the region. Saturday is looking seasonable and Sunday is looking even warmer.
An early look at weekend temperatures:
BEYOND
A cold front does look to approach New England later on Sunday. This could bring some showers back into the mix for early next week. What happens with the associated area of low pressure with that front will determine New England's weather next week. Being a week out, there's plenty of scenarios still in play.
Frontal map showing the cold front crossing New England for Monday (June 12). That area of low pressure near the Ohio-Kentucky line will need to be watched:
One last note. The beginning of this article talked briefly about NAO and it's impacts on the east coast's weather. The NAO index forecast remains in a negative phase through at least late June. While this doesn't mean every day for the rest of the month will be cool (the weekend, again, is looking warm), it could lead to limited big time warm ups and heat waves. Right now, next week (June 11-17) is looking seasonable to warm, but no major heat. The NAO index is looking to begin rebounding toward zero toward the middle of the month.
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