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Early Look at Potential Storm This Weekend for New England

The first nor'easter of the 2023-2024 fall to spring season could be on the horizon for New England heading into this upcoming weekend. An area of low pressure will move to the north of New England late this week. As it does so, a secondary area of low pressure will likely form to the south of New England. While there remains uncertainty in how these lows interact, there is a growing chance for another wet weekend with some windy conditions as well.

The exact track, intensity and how the overall setup evolves will determine how much rain falls and where, how long rain falls for and how gusty winds may get. The atmosphere will likely become primed for heavy downpours as tropical moisture could stream into the region. While there is natural disagreement among models several days out, there is pretty good consensus on the system arriving by Friday night, peaking on Saturday, with the system winding down on Sunday.

There is a large spread in how much rain is likely among models, which is expected at this time frame. As of Tuesday morning, the NBM (National Blend of Models) is showing a widespread half an inch to inch and a half of rain, but this will be fine-tuned as the weekend approaches.

A big question with rainfall is how continuous the rain will be during the day Saturday and into Saturday night. Depending on how the system evolves, there could be an all day washout for Saturday, but the day could also be more of a scattered downpours type of day, where rainfall is not consistent all day long.

Whether the rainfall is continuous or not, as well as the overall impacts will be determined by how the system evolves. While the primary low pressure to New England's north will likely spawn a secondary low to the south, it could also result in multiple waves of low pressure rather than just one organised storm.

Should multiple areas of low pressure form, the rainfall would be more scattered in nature. Winds will also be weaker. Should one organised coastal low form, the storm would have the chance to intensify as it moves through New England and into Canada. This would lead to a more continuous rain and stronger wind gusts.

The storm is looking to pull away by Sunday, with clearing expected from south to north. Wrap around showers will be most likely in the higher elevations of northern New England Sunday. Cooler air will filter in behind the system, which could produce some mountain snow showers.

Euro, GFS and Canadian models showing current trends for Saturday afternoon and evening:

Either way, at this time, the storm doesn't look to be overly significant, it's shaping up to be yet another "Saturday Soaker" for the northeast with some gusty winds possible. We'll need to keep watching trends throughout the rest of the week to see exactly what will happen with the storm.



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