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New England Trends Drier as Frontal Boundary Moves South

For the better part of a week now, it's been looking like a frontal boundary stalled just to the south of New England would allow waves of low pressure to ride along it, bringing a lot of clouds and rain showers. This frontal boundary is looking to stall just a bit farther south, which, in New England, means a drier trend in the forecast. There will still be plentiful clouds over the next few days, but some breaks of sunshine will be present, especially for central and northern areas.

This trend to the south keeps the most moisture from incoming systems to the south and west, although it won't be totally dry. The best chance for showers tonight and into Friday morning will be across southern New England, mainly Connecticut, Rhode Island and the South Shore. For the rest of Friday and through Saturday, low pressure will swing well offshore of New England, keeping a vast majority of precipitation out of the region.

NAM showing expected weather from Thursday night through Saturday afternoon. You can see a majority of the rainfall staying to the west and south as the low trends that way:

With that said, New England will remain under an onshore flow amid broad cyclonic flow. Anytime there is broad cyclonic flow in place, there will be a chance for showers, particularly in the afternoons due to daytime heating (known as diurnally driven showers). Breaks in the cloud cover will, ironically, raise the chance for a pop up afternoon showers. These showers would be very small and light with a majority of the day being dry for Friday and Saturday.

Saturday night heading into Sunday will see another system diving south of New England. The extent of showers on Sunday will come down to how the system moving south of New England on Friday and Saturday moves. If this system takes a more direct route away from New England, it will allow a weak area of high pressure to sneak into New England, allowing for continued mainly dry weather. If the system gets hung up around Nova Scotia, it will allow more shower activity.

The "give it to me straight" idea is that the overall pattern has trended south, so New England is out of the heart of the precipitation, but still on the edge of it. This brings plenty of clouds and some showers but washouts are increasingly unlikely. Through early next week, New England is looking at a total of a quarter inch of rain or less.

Forecast rainfall through Tuesday morning. You can see the heart of the rainfall to our west and south:

While the precipitation is trending downward, the temperatures will not be trending upward. New England will remain cool at least through the weekend. While Friday is not looking as cool now (it was looking like many areas may have struggled to get out of the 40s, but now that cooler weather looks to stay to the west), it will still be persistently below average through Sunday amid a persistent onshore flow.

It does look like a warming trend will occur through the middle of next week. A switch to a westerly flow looks to be in store. This will usher in a more mild air mass aloft, which will help warm up the surface. Any dry weather that develops early next week is unlikely to last long as unsettled weather will likely re-enter the picture to some extent.

Euro model showing a persistently cool air mass gives way to a more mild one by early next week:



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