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Unsettled Weather Returning to New England; Cooler Pattern Afterward

After a few days of drying out, New England is set to enter into another unsettled stretch. This stretch, which will begin tonight, will not produce multiple inches of rain across New England like last week. This stretch of weather will likely persist into early next week. After that, New England will likely be looking at more consistent seasonable temperatures after spending a majority of the last month or so above average.

Expected total QPF (rain plus melted snow) through Tuesday:

The first system set to bring back the wet times will be sliding through New England tonight into Friday morning. A weak low will slide right through New England along a frontal boundary. A strong upper jet will allow for moderate to briefly heavy downpours, mainly in northern New England, however, the storm is moving so fast, not all that much rain is expected. Much of New England is looking at a general quarter to half inch of rain from late tonight through noon Friday.

NAM showing potential weather early Friday morning:

Temperatures will be marginal enough for some snow to fall across northern Vermont and New Hampshire. A dusting to a few inches will be possible, with the most likely accumulations across the White and western Maine mountains.

Showers will gradually taper off through Friday afternoon. After this, brief, weak ridging will take hold for Saturday, keeping the day mainly dry. This ridging is fragile as it comes between the departing system from Friday night and an approaching system for Saturday night to Sunday. The day will likely remain mostly cloudy. Some brief, isolated showers will be possible as the region will remain under cyclonic flow.

The next system will begin to push into New England early Sunday morning. This system will involve an area of low pressure passing just to the north of New England. With the track well inland, this will be a rain event for a majority of New England (the mountains and northern Maine will be the typical exception). This system will drag its fronts across New England Sunday, leading to wet and unsettled weather throughout the day, but unlikely to be a total washout.

Moisture associated with this system is not all that impressive and the system itself will be relatively weak, so showers are not expected to be heavy at any point and the day Sunday is unlikely to be a washout. There will be scattered rain showers around all day that will likely have a hard time amounting to much more than a quarter inch in most places.

Euro showing potential weather Sunday afternoon:

There will be a chance for northern Maine to see some snow out of this system. This will depend on whether or not a secondary low can form along the system's triple point (where the cold, warm and occluded fronts intersect). The level of development will determine if (and how much) snow may fall. A weak secondary low keeps the door open for a mild southerly flow while a stronger one would lock colder air in place.

Either way, it won't be a significant snow event, but it will be the difference between plain rain showers, a mix of rain and snow or some accumulating snow. Like the Thursday night to Friday system, this one will be progressive and quickly move through the area on Sunday.

Outside of a couple one-day cold snaps, New England has been persistently above average for the better part of a month now. This is looking increasingly likely to change as we head into next week. A ridge-in-the-west-trough-in-the-east pattern looks to set up. This will bring chillier weather to New England.

As of now, it looks more like New England will return to more seasonable levels rather than truly cold levels, but it may feel cold after such a mild start to March. Highs will likely top out in the 30s north and 40s south rather than the 40s north and 50s south with colder overnight lows as well.



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