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UPDATE: Breaking Down Each Day's Storm Risk For New England This Week

It's going to be an unsettled, stormy week across New England as yet another cut off low slowly works eastward toward the region. Thunderstorms and torrential rain will be a threat just about all week long. The potential for flooding grows every day, especially for Vermont and northern New Hampshire.


Tuesday will be very similar to Monday. The main difference is that temperatures will be a notch higher. Tuesday will also likely see some thunderstorm activity in the morning as well as another round in the afternoon. The afternoon round is looking more isolated in nature than yesterday.

With a cold pool moving into the region aloft, hail will be more of a threat Tuesday than Monday in the stronger storms. Torrential rainfall, again, will be the biggest threat. The highest chance for flooding rainfall will likely be into New Hampshire and Vermont.


More thunderstorms and downpours will be on tap for Wednesday. At this time, a strong to severe threat is not in the picture as the overall setup is a bit more muted compared to Monday and Tuesday. Small hail could still occur as the cold pool continues to work into the region.

Torrential rainfall once again is the primary threat. Parts of New England are in the "marginal" category for excessive rainfall from Monday through at least Thursday. This threat is broad on Monday and Tuesday, covering much of New England but shrinks to Vermont, New Hampshire, eastern Maine and western Massachusetts for Wednesday and Thursday.


Thursday will be rinse and repeat for much of New England, although coverage of storms will be lower. The main threat for locally flooding rain will be confined to northern New England, with storms more isolated in nature in southern New England.

Friday will likely be mainly dry, although a brief, isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out. Friday marks the first time since last Friday (June 23) that no part of New England is in the Weather Prediction Center's zone for excessive rainfall. Friday will also see a brief lowering of the humidity.


Another area of low pressure will work toward New England for the weekend. This will result in two things: a return of scattered showers and storms and a southerly flow allowing humidity to creep back up.

Any weekend rain is looking to stay isolated to scattered, so, like this entire week (and the whole month), a washout is very unlikely. There will be many more dry hours than wet hours, especially on Saturday. It currently appears that Vermont and New Hampshire will have the better chance for more storms and downpours on Saturday. There does look to be an increase in shower activity on Sunday for all of New England, but again, not a washout.

Weather map for Sunday afternoon showing more numerous showers and storms than what is expected on Saturday. It still won't be a washout:



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