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After Quiet Week, Rain Looks to Enter New England Friday

The rest of this week will feature a very gradual warm-up, with each day's highs ticking higher than the last until temperatures are 10+° above average by Friday. This week will also feature dry and generally bright skies now that high pressure is building back into the region.


Overnight low temperatures will become milder as well after almost mid-winter like mornings Sunday and Monday, though they will still be on the chilly side, especially Wednesday morning before a quick warm-up takes over for the day.




This stretch of quiet weather is looking increasingly likely to come to an end on Friday as a cold front approaches from the west. This will lead to increasing clouds during the day on Friday. Rain is looking to break out along the cold front Friday afternoon in Vermont and western Massachusetts.


At this same time, a coastal storm will likely be moving up the coast toward New England. Where this storm tracks, its timing and how it interacts with the cold front will determine exact impacts on New England. Right now, models are split on just how much the two systems phase together. The more they interact, the higher the rainfall will likely be.





Right now, major models are split on just how much interaction will occur. Current trends limit the heaviest rain to the South Shore, Rhode Island and eastern Maine. If the storm track trends west, it would mean heavier rain across more of New England as the storm would see more phasing with the cold front. This would also lead toward higher winds, at least at the coast.


Euro and GFS for Saturday morning:


Either way, the heaviest of rains are looking to fall across eastern New England, with lesser rain in association with the cold front in western New England. Since there is uncertainty in how much the cold front and coastal storm system interact, as well as the exact track of the storm, expected rainfall currently has quite a large range. Up to, or over, an inch of rain will be possible across eastern areas.


NBM showing potential rainfall:



As far as precipitation, with mild air in place ahead of the system, this should be an all-rain event for a vast majority of New England. Some snow may be possible on the backside of the storm in the higher elevations of northern New England.


Overall, while some gusty winds and steady rain is expected, this isn't shaping up to be a high-impact storm and flooding is not expected. Timing of the rain is looking to be Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon with the heaviest of the rain falling Friday night through Saturday morning.

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