High and Low Pressure Set to Trade Places over New England in Coming Week

New England's pre-Halloween storm is now well north of New England. The system has rapidly strengthened as it continues to move into the Canadian Maritimes. The storm's central pressure has dropped into the low 970 millibar range, indicating a strong system. This low pressure to the north and surface high pressure to the southwest will continue to support breezy conditions today, though the gradient between the two will not be as tight, so gusts today will be lesser than yesterday and last night. As the storm continues to push away and high pressure edges north, gusts will continue to relax.

Below: Surface pressure and wind direction Saturday afternoon:

Surface high pressure will dominate New England's weather on Sunday and heading into Monday as the center of the high pressure system slides south of New England and eventually into the Gulf of Maine. Increasing high pressure means calmer winds and sunnier weather, but it will also bring overnight chill. Widespread 20s to low 30s are expected region-wide both tonight and Sunday night. Sunday night will likely be the cooler of the two nights.

A developing southwesterly flow on Monday will bring a decent warm-up from the cold morning. This will come ahead of another weak system that will be passing well to the north of New England. This system will quickly drag its cold front across the region later Monday into Tuesday morning. This system will fail to phase completely with a southern stream system, so it will remain weak with much lighter rainfall than our last system.

This trade-off between high and low pressure systems to start off the week will generally be how the remainder of the week plays out. A weak area of high pressure will build into New England from the south on Wednesday before another trough pushes through the region around Wednesday night or Thursday. This system will be a northern stream clipper system.

Its exact location and intensity remain a question, but some guidance shows a rather strong system with abundant moisture to tap into, while others show a much weaker and more progressive storm (similar to what's coming Monday night). Should this system go down the route of a stronger one, more rain and wind will be on the way, along with the potential for high elevation mixing and snow.

Below: Current weather map for Thursday morning (November 6):

While the Thursday system remains rather uncertain in regards to timing, intensity and how long it may linger, the daily trade-off between high and low pressure could very well continue. As of now, surface high pressure looks to try to nudge into New England next Friday before another storm system pushes toward next weekend. At present, this appears to be another northern stream system, as the northern stream remains highly active and is currently pushing its storm track through New England.

Overall, we remain in an active pattern with the potential for a system every couple days. This will be complimented by weak and brief ridging in between systems. This generally zonal flow will also lead to the potential for up and down temperatures, but generally hanging near seasonable levels for early November in most cases.

Below: 500mb height anomaly through the next week showing the trade-off between ridging and troughing over New England: