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New England Flash Flooding; Holiday Weekend Weather: Weather Wednesday

Updated: Jun 28, 2023

In this week's episode, I talk about the flash flooding that has occurred in New England over the past several days as well as break down weather prospects for the 4th of July holiday weekend (and beyond).

Prefer to read? There's a written version of the 4th of July weather prospects below the video. You can also read about New England's flash flooding here.

So, you know how two weeks ago, I said New England’s weather until further notice, meaning the current pattern we’re in shows no signs of breaking down? And then last week I said it’s still until further notice? Well, for the end of this week and into next week…some changes are in store. The overall messy pattern remains rather locked in place with a blocked up ridge of high pressure to our west. Despite this, some drier weather is in the cards for the holiday weekend.

I say messy instead of dreary as there have been many dry hours for a lot of the region. Where I am in southeast New Hampshire, there have been a couple of very nice evenings. The showers and storms have overall been very localized, as you can tell by the flooding and damage that has occurred. This flooding has been very localized rather than widespread.

It looks like most of New England will get a break from all this scattered rain from Thursday evening through Saturday. Western areas will get more of a break from Thursday to Friday while eastern areas will get the break from Friday to Saturday. This is because an area of low pressure, the one that was with us all this week will be pushing to our east by tomorrow, which would allow western areas to clear out first.

Then, over the weekend, a second area of low pressure will begin pushing in from the west. So, for Saturday, it will generally be drier the further east you go, with eastern Massachusetts, southern New Hampshire and western Maine being the most dry. In this pattern, a spot shower is possible anywhere, but these areas will generally be the driest. With this overall pattern still in place, another low pressure system is never far behind.

By Sunday, another one will drift through New England and likely last through Monday, with clearing from west to east on Monday. Sunday will likely feature the most widespread shower and storm activity across the region as, once again, locally heavy downpours will be possible Sunday afternoon through Monday. Overall, it looks like the White Mountains will be the most unsettled through the weekend. For the 4th of July, there will likely be a risk for some thunderstorms, but it is looking mainly dry for most.

The key to the 4th will be where the area of low pressure that came through on Sunday to Monday is. Overall, it looks like only isolated pockets of storms will pop on Tuesday, mainly associated with daytime heating. This means it would be more typical summertime afternoon storms with partly cloudy skies for most of the day. Unfortunately, this pattern makes it difficult to pinpoint details 6 days out. Some patterns are easier to predict (a big old ridge of high pressure would make for easier forecasting), and some aren’t (like constant cut off lows meandering through the region).

A westerly flow will also boost temperatures, with widespread 80s looking increasingly likely for much of next week, including the 4th, with upper 70s in the mountains. Overall, it looks to be a rather summery on the 4th of July. I say this baited breath as the overall unsettled pattern does remain in place and as long as we’re in this pattern, we’re never really safe from pop up rain. There are signals of overall drier times for next week, particularly around mid week. We’ll have to keep watching though, as New England will likely remain in a trough, so a storm system could very easily form and dash those hopes.



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