New England November Weather Outlook: Transition to Winter

New England's gradual descent into winter continues as we move into November. Average high temperatures drop another 10-15 degrees from November 1st to the 30th. November can end up feeling a lot like fall or a lot like winter in New England. This year, the steady transition to winter will likely be felt.

Summary: This November is starting off active with pretty seasonable temperatures. A ridge-in-the-west-trough-in-the-east pattern will take hold heading toward the middle of the month. Overall, it looks like the steady descent into winter is well underway with chilly, below average temperatures expected for much of the month. This setup will also give New England more precipitation chances as well. Read below for the in-depth discussion.

November sunrise at Cove Island Park in Stamford, Connecticut

TEMPERATURES

This November has started off with a progressive pattern, reminiscent of zonal flow. Zonal flow occurs when the jet stream lays generally flat over the United States. In this case, the jet stream has set up right over New England. This setup typically leads to high and low pressure systems quickly moving across the region with no major ups and downs with temperatures.

This will continue through the rest of this week, with multiple areas of low pressure moving across New England (Wednesday night, Friday night, Sunday) with high pressure in between (Tuesday, Thursday). Temperatures will continue to hover around seasonable levels, as expected with zonal flow.

Below: Jet stream map for the middle of this week, showing the jet stream laying across the eastern United States:

Heading toward next week, the pattern is expected to remain on the progressive side with the northern stream continuing to move southward, out of Canada, for the winter. With that said, a more amplified pattern is expected to set up across the United States. An amplified pattern is the opposite of zonal flow; this occurs when more pronounced ridges and troughs develop within the jet stream. A ridge-in-the-west-trough-in-the-east pattern is likely to take hold.

Below: 500mb height anomaly next Monday, showing a prominent ridge-in-the-west-trough-in-the-east pattern taking hold:

This change in the pattern will support bouts of much cooler air to push into New England next week. After this weekend's systems, New England will likely see the coldest air of the season so far arrive early next week. With a deep trough in place, this chilly air will likely have some staying power. Generally below average temperatures are expected through next week.

Heading toward the middle of the month, the progressive nature of the pattern will likely see an eastward progression of the overall pattern. That is to say that the western ridge will likely begin to migrate eastward while a trough digs into the western most United States. Despite this eastward progression, all major models currently indicate that general troughing will linger across the northeast.

This will continue to support generally below average temperatures heading toward the middle of the month. The Climate Prediction Center has a majority of New England with a 50-60% chance of below average temperatures in both their 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. Note the general eastward progression of the above average temperatures between the 6-10 day map above and the 8-14 day map below.

Heading toward the second half of the month, things naturally begin to become pretty murky. Given how the first half of the month is looking, it seems like the best long-term prediction would be for a continuation of the eastward progression of the overall pattern. That is to say above average heights and ridging would develop for the east with troughing developing in the west. This could, in theory, promote some milder air (relative to averages) to develop. The main issue with this is that as we hurdle toward December, cold outbreaks will become more likely and frequent, regardless of general ridging or troughing.

With all of that said, we believe this November will end up with up and down temperatures, with cold bouts followed by returns to average. Here at the beginning of November, there are no major arctic blasts or warm surges in the picture. It's hard to say whether the ups or downs will win out when looking at the month as a whole. The ups and downs may cancel each other out and lead to a near average month as a whole. That does mean a steady decline into winter as averages drop quite a bit from the beginning to the end of the month.

PRECIPITATION

This active pattern at the beginning of the month comes as the northern stream continues its annual migration southward for the winter, when it typically lays across the northern tier of the United States. In the warmer months, this stream migrates north, well into Canada. Systems will be moving through New England at a brisk pace through this weekend.

After this weekend, New England will become entrenched in a deep trough, which will support unsettled weather continuing. Given the current setup, and considering the region's upcoming setup, we're thinking this month will run above average for precipitation for a majority of New England. With that said, it wouldn't be surprising to see northernmost areas see less precipitation than the rest of New England.

LOOKING BACK

We predicted an above average October for New England, which did pan out. These above average temperatures for the month were mainly driven by a warm beginning of the month. A de-amplification of the pattern was expected to occur around the middle of the month, which occurred and allowed for a bit of a cool-down.

We also predicted a below average month for precipitation. This ended up being a mixed bag, with some areas seeing less rain than others. Portland, Maine saw only 67% of average monthly rainfall while Burlington, Vermont saw 164%, marking the 4th wettest October on record. In the end, more cities in New England saw above average rainfall than below average.