New England's Hurricane Drought Continues as 2025 Season Begins

On August 19, 1991, Hurricane Bob made landfall across Rhode Island as a category 2 storm with sustained winds of 100mph. The storm tracked across the Massachusetts South Shore before making another landfall in Maine as a tropical storm. This was nearly 33 years ago. Since then, there have been seven tropical storm landfalls in New England, but direct contact from a hurricane has been avoided.

While direct landfalls from hurricanes are uncommon in New England and are never really expected in any given year, this current span without one is growing to be notable. The current stretch of 33 years without a landfall in New England is the second longest since 1851, the year in which the Atlantic Hurricane Database dates back.

This is, by far, the second longest drought, as the third longest is just 16 years (which occurred from 1969-1985). With that said, New England still has nearly a decade to go to reach the all-time longest drought, which is 42 years. This occurred from 1896 to 1938, and marked the end of the quietest period of tropical cyclone activity in New England in modern times with one of the strongest hurricanes in New England history. New England's current hurricane drought also contains the 2nd longest time between land-falling tropical storms, which is 13 years (2008-2021).

There have been close calls during this drought. In 2021, Henri, a category 1 hurricane, was on a collision course with southern New England and was, for a time, expected to end this drought. Henri would weaken rapidly upon approach and make landfall in Rhode Island as a higher end tropical storm. Hurricane Kyle in 2008 came close to eastern Maine, but veered east and made landfall in Nova Scotia. Category 1 Arthur bypassed Cape Cod by less than 100 miles in 2014. Sandy in 2012 took a sharp bend to the west before reaching New England.

While weather forces around New England almost always work to keep hurricanes out of the region, it has been an increasingly long time since a hurricane has been able to break through. This comes as New England's neighbors to the northeast, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, have seen hurricane activity in this time. Most notably, Juan in 2003 and Igor in 2010. In 2022, Fiona hit Nova Scotia as a post-tropical storm with winds still equivalent to a category 2 hurricane.

Looking at this season, all forecasts for the amount of named storms is (expectedly) lower than last year, which was widely expected to be a hyper-active season. Many organizations are calling for a slightly above average season (the long-term average is 14) with several calling for a season right around average. Influencing these forecasts include expected ENSO-Neutral conditions (neither El Nino nor Las Nina present), continued very warm sea surface temperatures and the potential for high activity from the West African Monsoon.

Naturally, long-term predictions for the number of named storms in a season need to be taken with a large grain of salt. Last season was widely expected to be hyper-active with the expectation of being one of the busiest on record. The season ended with 18 named storms, below a majority of predictions and vastly below some of them. During the 2024 season, a major lull in storm activity occurred during what is typically the peak of hurricane season, which was expected to be super-charged. This break in activity was caused by several small-scale factors that can't be predicted in the long-term.

By early September, only five named storms had formed. High activity late in the season propelled the season overall to end above average in what otherwise was looking like a below average season. A total of 11 storms formed from late September through November, including the two most devastating in Helene and Milton. This also goes to show that the actual number of named storms in a season doesn't correspond with the number of storms to have a massive and devastating impact on land.

Below: 2024 predictions compared to the actual number of named storms (represented by the black line:

In 2023, most agencies predicted a quieter season with less activity amid an unfavorable El Nino setup. The season ended with a total of 20 named storms forming and became the fourth most active on record. The season finished with more storms than most agencies predicted. All of this goes to show that predicting the number of storms to form is far from perfect. The truth is that many small-scale factors will come into play during the season that simply can't be seen weeks, let alone months, in advance. The total number of storms to form also has no bearing on how many will make landfall and how strong they'll be.

A hurricane will make landfall in New England again at some point. Whether that happens this year, next year or a decade from now, setting a new record for longest drought, there's no way to know for sure until a storm is actually bearing down.