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New England's Weather...Until Further Notice: Weather Wednesday

This week, I talk about New England's stuck weather pattern. A pattern so stuck, there are no clear indications of when it will end. I also talk about Mt. Washington's latest weather record.

Prefer to read about New England's stuck weather pattern? There's a written version of what I said below the video.

Well, isn’t this familiar? This week seems to be shaping up just like last week, doesn’t it? Of course, there’s one big difference: the temperatures. Temperatures for much of this week are running a good 10-15 degrees warmer than last week. This is because, similar as it may be, the set up isn’t the exact same as last week. Last week we had a stalled low pressure bouncing back and forth from New England to Nova Scotia and back again. This week we have a very slow moving area of low pressure that will be shifting from the Great Lakes through New England over the course of this week.

This is thanks to an Omega Block that has, once again, set up shop. Last week, I called the block a pseudo-omega block since it wasn’t as tight as a more traditional omega block. This week, however, the block is a more pronounced omega. On Monday, I wrote that this pattern will be sticking with us until further notice. That’s because there’s no clear indications of exactly when this will all break down. The low is forecast to exit early next week, but models have been delaying this exit with each run. The Omega Block may begin to break down this weekend, but blocking patterns are very stubborn, as I’ve said before, and like to hang around longer.

Now, the block could break down briefly and let the area of low pressure depart this weekend. Something similar happened this past weekend. The stuck pattern broke, let the storm depart and then built back up for this week. So, the same could happen here, the block breaks down and then quickly rebuilds. Early indications show, at least, eastern New England generally on the cooler side for next week.

With the area of low pressure potentially departing next week, how much unsettled weather there'll be remains to be seen. This pattern is showing signs of being very persistent. This can be seen in the NOAA’s 8-14 temperature outlook. You can see very clear indications of an omega block style block with a large ridge of above average temps in the middle of the country with cooler weather on the east and west coasts.

Another longer term resource we can look at is North Atlantic Oscillation, or NAO. We talked about this a lot last week. Basically, a negative phase can mean generally cooler weather in New England while a positive phase is the opposite. The NAO forecast remains negative through the forecast period, which basically goes into July at this point. You can see the index forecast very slowly crawling toward zero, but staying below. A negative phase supports troughing in New England, which brings cooler temperatures. So even if the blocking pattern breaks down, New England could remain in a trough.

For anyone who wants more consistent summer heat, and I know there are plenty of people who much prefer this weather over summer heat, but for those looking for something, anything. Here’s the NOAA’s 3-4 week outlook. I rarely bring this up as I don’t put much stock in it, and I don’t think you should either, but here it is. The 3-4 week outlook hasn’t been all that accurate as of late. The 3-4 week outlook updates weekly, the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks update daily. As I always say, just because the general trend is cooler, doesn't mean every single day will be cool. Right now, for instance, New England is looking at seasonable temps for the rest of the work week.



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