New England Weather This Week: Typical Mid-November

This week will start off windy and snowy (for the mountains). Things will gradually calm down for the middle of the week. The next organized system looks to approach for Friday, but it looks pretty low-impact at this time.

MONDAY

Similar to last week, this week will be starting off with broad cyclonic flow over New England. This comes as New England's weekend storm has slowed down and strengthened near Nova Scotia this morning. This will bring another chilly day with persistent upslope snow showers. Additional snow accumulations in the Green and White Mountains will generally be in the 4-8 inch range. Snow showers will gradually diminish through the afternoon.

Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories remaining in effect across the Green Mountains through this evening. Snowfall will be highly elevation-based. Snow showers will also continue to rotate around the main storm system into eastern Maine. These will gradually diminish through the day, bringing an additional 1-3 inches to northern Maine through this afternoon. Winter weather advisories there remain in effect through early this afternoon.

Outside of these areas, the main story will be gusty winds today. A tight pressure gradient between the low pressure just east of Maine and high pressure trying to nose in from the west will support gusts of 30-40mph through the day. Combine this with chilly temperatures, and wind chills will remain in the 20s and 30s region-wide today as most will struggle to climb out of the 30s this afternoon. Outside of the mountains, very little to no precipitation is expected as forcing will be very weak. Spotty flurries will be possible at times, however.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY

The middle of this week looks to feature generally calmer and quiet weather as the aforementioned high pressure to our west pushes eastward. At the same time, the low pressure system to our east will continue to push away, loosening its grip on the region. On Tuesday, the pressure gradient will be weaker, but still tight enough to keep blustery winds around, with gusts of 20-30mph. Gusts will be much weaker Wednesday and Thursday with surface high pressure taking over.

As the week progresses, the overall flow pattern will transition from a more blocked-up flow to more zonal flow, which will help to bring calmer weather to the region. Temperatures will likely slowly moderate after Monday, with each day a degree or two milder than the last. Overall, zonal flow tends to lead to more stable weather, without much change from day to day, so Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday will be pretty similar to each other. Zonal flow also tends to result in temperatures right around seasonable levels for the time of year we're in, which is right around where we'll be during this time.

High pressure gradually taking over for New England will result in generally dry weather. Some lingering upslope snow showers may persist into Tuesday morning, but after that, even the mountains will be generally dry with more sunshine. An area of low pressure is expected to move off the Mid-Atlantic coast around Wednesday to Thursday morning, but with zonal flow in place, this system will not move up the coast, but rather out to sea.

While subtle shifts in this system will be watched, it looks like it will remain completely south of New England, with no precipitation currently expected. It will likely result in more clouds for Thursday, however. A slight northward jog could send some showers up to the South Shore and Cape Cod, but high pressure centered over northern New England will do its best to keep the system well away.

FRIDAY

New England's next widespread and organized system will likely approach the region on Friday. The overall setup appears to be similar to this past weekend with a primary low tracking near the southern end of Hudson Bay and a secondary area of low pressure moving just north of New England. This would result in a warm frontal passage for much of the region Friday into Friday night bringing rain showers to southern and central New England and a period of snow and mixing to northern areas.

At this time, trends are favoring a weaker, more progressive system within the zonal flow. If these trends hold up through the week, precipitation will likely amount to a widespread quarter to half inch. Snow and ice totals would be lighter and reserved for the higher terrain of northern New England and maybe northern Maine.

WEEKEND

There's a good amount of uncertainty heading into this weekend as the back end of Friday's system has significant differences among guidance. The main uncertainty revolves around the system's cold front as it gets pulled through New England. Exactly where this front sets up will determine the level of unsettled weather for next weekend. At this point, Saturday and Sunday look mostly dry with the potential for isolated broad cyclonic snow and rain showers. Whether this holds up or whether things trend more unsettled will be sorted out this week. Either way, a continued warming trend is likely.

BEYOND

Heading toward Thanksgiving week, a general eastward shift in the overall pattern is likely, with milder conditions trying to spread eastward from the west while the west coast begins to cool down. While the most mild conditions relative to average are expected to remain farther south along the east coast, Thanksgiving week could shape up to be on the milder side. The overall signal for mild conditions in New England is weak and could disappear over time, but it's there for now. We'll do our annual Thanksgiving week weather outlook on Wednesday.