A strong cold front will push west to east through New England this afternoon. This front will trigger a line of snow showers and possibly a few heavier snow squalls. Today's setup is very similar to a thunderstorm day New England would see in the summer. Since its January, the scattered thunderstorms are replaced with scattered snow squalls.
Some scattered snow showers have already broken out across portions of Vermont. These snow showers will steadily push east through the afternoon and across Maine in the evening. While many will likely see a lighter snow shower, not everyone will see a full-blown squall.
Areas that do get under a squall will have the chance to pick up a quick 1-3 inches of snow. Squalls can result in very heavy snow, gusty winds and near whiteout conditions for 10-15 minutes before pulling away.
Expected weather around 3pm:
With the scattered nature of the snow showers and squalls, any minor accumulations today will be spotty, with one town/city not seeing much of anything and a couple towns over seeing a few inches.
Some thunder is not out of the question within the squalls thanks to steep lapse rates. This is highlighted in the Storm Prediction Center's convective outlook, which highlights southern and central New England for the possibility of thunder.
Storm Prediction Center risk for thunder today, highlighting New England and south Florida:
There likely won't be one solid line of snow showers to move through New England, but rather a more disorganized cluster. This may result in some areas seeing light snow showers for a couple hours, so even areas that don't get under a snow squall could still end up with an inch or two of snow by Sunday evening.
Looking further ahead, the potential nor'easter we've been watching for around midweek has been trending further offshore. The storm continues to look like it will pass well to the east of New England. This would keep the heaviest, more impactful snow out of New England. Still, lighter snow is looking more likely as the storm delivers a glancing blow.
There is still a decent spread in the models with the CMC still bringing the storm closer to New England. This would result in steadier snow and higher accumulations, so we'll need to keep watching the trends, but an offshore track with lesser snowfall is the most likely at this time.
What the Euro model currently shows for Tuesday evening. The GFS is a bit further offshore and the CMC is a bit closer. The Euro is currently acting as a middle ground:
With this track, a widespread light snowfall could be seen across eastern New England, resulting in 1-3 inches of snow. The highest chance of more steady snowfall will be across the south shore of Massachusetts, Rhode Island and eastern Maine.
Probability of snow accumulating at least 2 inches from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning:
There may be another storm around the Friday to Saturday time frame as well. With colder air and a jet stream dip over the eastern United States this week, it would likely take an offshore track as well, leading to more wintry precipitation. So, New England's weather may stay generally stormy this week with two storms we're watching, but with the pattern change, these storms will be colder and less impactful than the ones last week.
