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Unsettled Weather Incoming: Weather Wednesday

In this week's episode, I talk about some unsettled weather coming to New England in the coming days. I also go over the 40/70 benchmark.

Prefer to read? There is a written version of the unsettled weather forecast below the video. You can also read about the 40/70 benchmark here.

The quiet, but cold weather from this week will be coming to an end on Thursday and Friday. The cold weather will be ending on Thursday as seasonable temperatures return amid a more southerly flow and the quiet weather will be ending as a cold front drops through New England on Friday.

That front will bring some rain and snow showers to the region Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. This will be a light precipitation event with rain adding up to maybe a quarter inch in places. Rain will be most likely Friday night through Saturday morning in southern and central New England.

Some light snow showers may fall in northern New England, but the keyword there is light. After the frontal system, this is where things take a turn from our initial weekend forecast in our New England weather this week article. In that article, we wrote The system above is looking to clear out in time for the weekend with high pressure and seasonable temperatures dominating.

Well, Wednesday morning, models have taken a bit of a drastic turn, although not too surprising. That high pressure that was set to dominate this weekend is looking to set up further north. Also, the cold front has trended toward stalling near, or south of, New England. Whenever you have a stalled frontal boundary around New England, it will always lead to a lot of clouds and shower chances.

That looks to be the case over the weekend into early next week as multiple disturbances ride along the stalled cold front. This doesn’t mean the weekend will be a washout, at this time, it does look like there will be plenty more dry hours than wet hours, just a lot of clouds and scattered shower chances for both Saturday and Sunday.

With the frontal boundary to our south, the systems will get funneled to our south, but we’ll remain under cyclonic flow, allowing the showers to come northward. There will likely be drier breaks between the systems target funneled through, but it's very difficult to pinpoint exactly when those drier times will be.

Again, there should be more dry times than wet times. These showers will also be in the form of rain for most, with some snow showers across northern areas. A more organized storm is looking to enter the picture in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe. This coastal storm is being shown passing more offshore, but we’ll need to keep watching the trends, especially with the guidance shift for this weekend.

For this storm, we may need to watch a rain/snow line, but there’s plenty of time to work this one out still. The Climate Prediction Center’s 8-14 hazard outlook has New England under a slight chance for winds, so the gusty days look to generally continue, which is not surprising given the time of year. The outlook also has interior northern New England under a slight risk for heavy snowfall, indicating the potential for the unsettled weather.

Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 day outlooks. This remains an experimental tool and this is actually the first time we're using it on New England Storm Center:



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