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Upcoming New England Weather; Watching the Tropics: Weather Wednesday

In this week's Weather Wednesday episode, I talk about New England's warm up (for some), as well as the intense surge of humidity incoming to all of New England. I also take an early look at what's shaping up to be another wet week as well as an update on Tropical Storm Bret and another disturbance brewing in the tropics.

Prefer to read about New England's upcoming weather? There's a written version below the video.

So, you know how last week I said New England's weather would remain the same until further notice. Well, a week later, it is still until further notice. Despite this, we are getting a shift in the pattern that's going to bring us a little bit of different weather. A Rex Block has set up, which is a high pressure located north or (nearly directly) north of a low pressure system. We had this over Memorial Weekend, although the set up was much different that time as it gave all of New England very warm conditions. This one not the same setup and it's going to start breaking down tomorrow.

As we look at the general setup you can see that the high pressure is off to the east in the Gulf of Maine, and this location of the high pressure is why Northern New England is going to get into the heat while Southern New England is going to struggle. The heat is actually coming from the north from Canada, it's been bottled up to the west but this pattern shift did allow the heat to start to slide Eastward, so it is dropping into New England from the north, which is why northern Maine and Northern Vermont are going to get into the heat much more than everyone else.

This setup really lends itself to why Southern New England is really struggling to get into any kind of heat this time. The forecast kind of nose dived, especially for Thursday, for Southern New England. Even into Maine and Vermont where at one point, just a couple of days ago, was looking like there would be potentially widespread low 90s There were even some signals going up to mid-90s and now it's looking like 90s are not going to happen anywhere in New England this time around.

It looks like the warmest temperatures will be up in Maine up into the mid-80s, with maybe some isolated upper 80s, but 90s are not looking likely anywhere in New England. That's because of the flow. This setup with the high pressure just New England's East, the flow is coming from the East so we have an onshore flow which keeps Southern and coastal New England cooler for Thursday and Friday. The flow switches to a more southerly Direction over the weekend so what that does allow for is for some of the energy from the low pressure system to our South to creep up into Southern New England.

The low pressure continues to slide Eastward and away from New England over the weekend, so that will allow more and more energy from the southern system to come into New England. Clouds will be increasing across the region on Friday, although temperatures will remain warm on Friday and through the weekend.

This setup will also increase the dew points and the humidity. Starting Friday, the dew points will be ticking up and continue to tick up through the weekend. Sunday, parts of Southern New England could even have dew points to 70 which is really tropical like air. So, while the temperatures won't be too hot, a lot of low 80s over the weekend, it is going to be oppressive out there as we have not had humidity like this for a while.

This increase in the humidity, along with the energy from the system from the south being able to spread North through the weekend, is going to lead to unsettled weather. There's likely going to be scattered showers and thunderstorms with heavy downpours throughout the weekend. Just like we've had for most of June, it's not going to be raining all day everyday, there's going to be scattered downpours and thunderstorms on both Saturday and Sunday with dry conditions in between.

Right now, it does look like Sunday is going to be the stormier day. At this time, it does not look like a widespread severe outbreak is going to happen this weekend. With this set up there's always a chance for isolated strong to severe storms, but the main thread is going to be heavy tropical-like downpours for us with this humidity where it's going to be.



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