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Warmth, Unsettled Weather Incoming; Recent Disaster Declarations | Weather Wednesday

This week's weather Wednesday focuses in on some unsettled weather incoming as well as a pattern change coming for next week. We also go over recent disaster declarations in New England dating back to the summer of 2023.


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The story for a while in New England now has been generally above average temperatures. This will be continuing over the next couple days as highs shoot well above average for Wednesday and Thursday. This comes amid a persistent southwest flow. An area of low pressure moving to the north of New England will slowly pull a warm front across New England, allowing temperatures to soar in places on Thursday.


In fact, some areas in the typical warm spot of the Connecticut River Valley could make a run at 70°. Elsewhere will see temperatures climb into the 50s with eastern Maine staying in the 40s. It is officially sea breeze, and with a weak flow and high pressure offshore, a chilly breeze off the ocean will keep coastal areas much cooler during this time.



The dry pattern we’ve been in for the last few days will be ending Thursday night into Friday as an area of low pressure traverses New England, bringing a round of showers. There could be some bouts of heavier downpours with this storm, but the storm will likely really be moving along, so rainfall amounts will be limited to no more than a half an inch. Some snow showers will be possible across the mountains and northern Maine, but it’s not looking to amount to much at all with probabilities of an inch of snow topping out at 50%.


Expected weather Friday morning:



There will likely be a brief dry out for Saturday before another round of showers moves in on Sunday as an area of low pressure moves to New England’s north. This track will keep a majority of New England in the warm sector, meaning rain showers. These are looking more like spotty, lighter rain showers for most. The day is not looking washed out. There could still be some snow across the higher elevations as well as northern Maine.


Euro showing potential weather Sunday afternoon:


New England will remain under cyclonic flow through early next week. This will likely lead to increased clouds and spotty shower chances. This comes as a pattern change looks to be incoming with Sunday’s system.


It’s looking like a jet stream flip will be occurring by this weekend as a ridge builds in the west. Ridging in the west will almost always mean troughing in the east and that’s what will happen.



This will allow some cooler air into New England for next week. Right now, it doesn’t appear that it will get truly cold, but even dropping back near or slightly below average will feel chilly after above average temperatures have dominated. As of now, the trough does appear to be centered more to our southwest, so the coolest of the weather (relative to average) may stay to our southwest.



In fact, the CPC temperature outlook favors near average temperatures for New England. This is the first time in a while that New England hasn’t been favored for above average temperatures in a while. How long it lasts is unclear as we’re now starting to look out a couple weeks, but some indications do show the generally troughing in the east lasting through the rest of March.



There have been several intense storms that have moved through New England over the past several months. There’s no doubt New England has been in a stormy, wet overall pattern for a while now. After a summer of flooding, intense storms carried over into the winter with several powerful cyclones. There have been seven major disaster declaration level events in New England since last June. Five have been approved, one has been denied and the other is still pending. Here they are:



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