With less than a week to go until the running of the 127th Boston Marathon, it's time to start looking into the weather for the race. In my initial forecast, I wrote that rain would be possible along with the summer-like heat backing off in time for the race. This still holds true, but some more details are coming into focus.
RAIN
New England's unusually long (for April) break from rain and unsettled weather looks to end just in time for Marathon Monday. A low pressure system will likely track well to the north of New England. This will, in turn, drag a cold front across the region. The front will produce cloudy and unsettled weather for New England.
In Massachusetts, it currently looks like the best chance of more widespread rain will be in the western part of the state, away from the race route. There will likely be some scattered showers across the marathon, but a washout is unlikely at this point. There looks to be a better chance for more widespread showers in the afternoon, however, it will be cloudy and unsettled all day.
There remains some discrepancies over the exact timing of the cold front. Here's the Euro model showing unsettled weather across eastern Massachusetts Monday morning through midday.
Here's the Euro showing more widespread rain in western Mass and widespread showers in eastern Mass in the afternoon as the front pushes through. The NBM shows a similar pattern play out.
The takeaway from all of this is that the steadiest rain and widespread showers will likely be confined to the western part of the state while the marathon route in eastern Mass will see scattered showers around all day.
TEMPERATURES
The summer-like heat that will envelop Massachusetts at the end of this week will abate in time for the marathon. With the system coming through the region overnight Sunday to Monday, it will likely keep temperatures mild overnight and into Monday morning. The morning low is looking to be in the upper 40s or low 50s. The temperatures will likely not move too much during the day, with afternoon highs topping out in the mid to upper 50s.
Here's NBM guidance on apparent temperatures showing temps in the 50s in the afternoon, this holds true for pretty much the entire day.
WIND
There will be a breeze, with some gusts possible. The wind will be from the east northeast in the morning, switching to due east by midday. Sustained winds will be 5-15 mph with some slightly higher gusts possible.
Commentaires