New England Thanksgiving Week Weather Outlook 2025

With just about one week to go until Thanksgiving, here's a look at how weather patterns will be setting up for next week. It's been a generally active pattern as of late, though storms have generally been strengthening after exiting New England, leading to a mostly low-impact stretch. Heading into early next week, general ridging is expected to shift eastward, bringing some milder conditions compared to this week. The active, yet low-impact stretch of weather may also continue.

Early next week will start off with generally zonal flow across the United States, which has been set up since our system this past weekend departed. This comes as the Pacific-North American Index has been tilted positive. When this occurs, more mild air can get pushed across the country from the Pacific Ocean.

This process has been slow, with milder air generally locked to the west of New England as we remain under the influence of broad cyclonic flow. With that said, continued zonal flow should allow milder temperatures to move into the region early next week. Monday may end up being the warmest day of the week next week.

Below 500mb flow pattern, showing a mainly zonal flow across the United States early next week:

At the surface, high pressure looks to be mainly in control over New England to start off next week. High pressure looks to be generally overhead Sunday, with ridging continuing into Monday and Tuesday. Zonal flow can often lead to a generally active pattern, with weak waves of energy moving through the fast upper-level flow.

This will continue to be the case, but waves of weak low pressure are currently poised to move well north of New England. This will keep forcing for showers (snow and rain) mostly to the north of New England. The best chance for some light precipitation early next week will be across the northern third of New England, mainly in the mountains.

Below: Current weather map for next Tuesday (November 25), showing a weak system moving north of New England, with the potential for light activity across northern areas:

The main feature to watch for New England will likely arrive around the middle of the week. An area of low pressure will likely form across the desert southwest around the start of the week. This system will likely push eastward across the southern tier of the United States. This system will interact with a strong jet streak and the Gulf of America, which will help to intensify it. This system then looks to get ejected northeastward, moving up the east coast.

The system is currently poised to arrive in New England by the middle of the week, with the three major models (Euro, GFS and CMC) currently all agreeing on a Tuesday night or Wednesday arrival. With that said, timing of the system can certainly change, no matter how much agreement is currently seen. Last year, a storm was looking to arrive after the day after Thanksgiving about a week out. As we know, the system trended earlier and it ended up arriving for Thanksgiving itself.

This system represents the next chance for widespread, region-wide precipitation. Being over a week out, there's plenty to sort out in regards to the exact timing and track. This will determine whether New England sees a period of steady precipitation or just a glancing blow with a few showers.

At this point, there's no evidence of the system interacting with a northern stream system, which will likely continue to get pushed well north of New England. There likely also won't be much polar air interaction. With milder air generally expected across the region next week, this looks to be a widespread rain-maker for the region rather than last year's rain-snow split.

Looking at Thanksgiving and the latter part of next week, New England may end up entrenched in general troughing. This would lead to a cool-down with the potential for continued unsettled weather. Most guidance currently shows Thanksgiving day itself being in between systems, but trying to time out this pattern down to the day is nearly impossible at this range. There are no major storms similar to what blew through last year, but 100% dry weather may be difficult to pull off.

Below: 500mb height anomaly late next week, showing a trough setting up for the northeast: