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After Another Cool Weekend, Summer-Like Weather Set to Build for New England

The timing of New England's weather pretty much stays the same through mid-week next week. That is to say it will be mainly cloudy and cool in eastern New England with western areas seeing more sun and warmer temperatures. This will be followed by sunnier and warmer weather to start the work week. The cool, cloudy and showery Saturday is thanks to a cutoff low that will be parked off Cape Cod through Sunday morning. This, along with a disturbance to the north, will cycle scattered showers into New England.

Sunday will be a case of the haves and have nots for New England. This comes as much of New England will see breaks in the clouds and warmer temperatures, however, the region's main population center will be stuck under an east-northeast flow. This will bring plenty of clouds and chilly ocean air off of the ocean. This will keep eastern Massachusetts, southeast New Hampshire and southern Maine cooler while others in the region will be able to warm up into the 70s.

Euro showing temperature departure from average for Sunday afternoon:

Heading into the start of the work week, a classic trough-in-the-west-ridge-in-the-east pattern develops across the United States. Monday will act as a transition day from the cool, cloudy pattern to the sunnier and warmer pattern. Stubborn clouds may linger across eastern New England on Monday. How long these clouds stick around will determine highs for the day. If these clouds hang around for much of the day, it will end up a bit cooler for the coastal plain. A persistent onshore flow will also still be at play.

Heading into Tuesday and Wednesday, the flow becomes southwesterly, bringing very warm air into all of New England. A high pressure center will be set up just to the south of New England. A ridge will also build a head of a trough that will be traversing the country. Both of these features will promote a deep southwest flow.

To answer the question as to how warm, it will mainly depend on the level of mixing. As of now, widespread 80s across much of New England is likely with 70s potentially hanging on across the northern tier and the immediate coast. A piece of energy from a disturbance may bring more clouds and a chance for spot showers across the north on Tuesday and, while a sea breeze will likely get beat back thanks to a southwest flow, could hold the immediate coast cooler and Cape Cod much cooler.

Interior warm spots (mainly the Connecticut River Valley) could make a push for the mid to even upper 80s, but chances remain low that anywhere will reach 90°. Despite the flow, dew point levels will remain on the lower end (mid 50s to around 60°), so we get a taste of early summer without the oppressive humidity.

Heading later into next week, it does look like the trough will push eastward with the ridge beginning to flatten out. A system moving north of New England will be looking to drag its cold front across the region at some point during the middle or latter part of next week, which will bring an end to the well above average warmth. This front could trigger showers and thunderstorms, but the extent of which remains to be seen.

Weather map for Thursday morning (May 23) showing the cold front approaching New England:

The preliminary outlook for Memorial weekend features a flatter jet stream with a potential return to more zonal flow. This would promote temperatures falling back to more seasonable levels for late-May. A cold front may sink south of New England for the weekend. Where this front sets up will determine the level of clouds and showers. If it sinks far enough south, it will keep the clouds and showers to the south of New England. Being a week plus out, nothing is locked in, this is just a quick preliminary outlook.



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