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Breaking Down Multiple Snow/Rain Chances This Week (Once Again)

Just like last week, New England is looking at multiple storms coming through the region this week, bringing a wide range of weather. The most pressing issue is the storm coming in tonight lasting through tomorrow, but there appears to be two storms ready to follow that storm, including the potential for a major snowstorm Friday night. Here's a breakdown.



TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT | IMPACT: HIGH


Southern New England is finally looking at an all snow event (most of southern New England, anyway). This storm will move into the region starting in Southwest Connecticut this evening. The shield of snow will move in a northeast direction until all of New England is into the snow by Tuesday morning. A secondary low will sweep through the region, leading to snow lingering into Tuesday night. There will be a lull in snow during the afternoon.


Temperatures will rise to near the freezing mark, or just over the freezing mark Tuesday afternoon, so the worst road conditions will likely be from 11pm-11am for much of New England. Maine will see sloppy roads all day Tuesday.


The snow will arrive in eastern Massachusetts around midnight tonight. Maine will get into the snow during the day on Tuesday. Most of the region will see 3-8 inches of snow. The jackpot area will be the Worcester Hills, Berkshires and southern Green Mountains. Larger snow totals could also be seen in western Connecticut and New Hampshire's lakes and mountains. A winter storm warning is in effect for all of these areas.


If I had to pick an area on New England Storm Center's snow map to over preform, it would be Rhode Island. Depending on how the storm unfolds, Rhode Island could very well see 6-7 inches by Wednesday morning.


Eastern Massachusetts, southeast New Hampshire, northern Vermont and eastern Maine will not get into the heaviest snow bands, which will keep amounts lower in those areas. These areas also have less elevation, which will limit upslope enhancement. The snow type should be a lighter, fluffier snow, so shoveling will be easier and power outages are not much of a concern.



WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY | IMPACT: LOW


This storm will be weaker and much warmer than the other two coming this week. southern and central New England will be looking at all rain. Some brief mixing may occur at the very beginning of the storm, but it will quickly switch over. The precipitation will likely kick off with scattered showers Wednesday afternoon with the steadiest rain coming Thursday morning.


In northern New England, the precipitation will be elevation based, with higher elevations seeing some snow. Even in the higher elevations, snowfall will be rather light. Areas that stay all snow will likely only see a few inches of snow, mainly falling Thursday morning.


A secondary low may form in the Gulf of Maine. This could lead to some colder air mixing into the Maine coast, which, in turn, could lead to some mixed winter precipitation along Maine's midcoast and downeast.


FRIDAY-SATURDAY | IMPACT: HIGH?


This could be a big one. This could be the biggest storm of the season for southern New England. Notice how those sentences use the word "could". There's still a lot that needs to come into focus for this storm. The big question mark with this storm will be the track. The storm is looking to track up the coast, potentially forming into a nor'easter.


Due to the setup that will be in place when this storm arrives, there's a lot of uncertainty on exactly how close the low will get to New England. Right now, models are showing the low tracking further offshore. If the low tracks too far offshore, New England won't get into the heaviest snow bands, if it tracks too close to the shore, a lot of mixing will occur.


As of now, it looks like the heaviest snow will fall in eastern Massachusetts from Boston north into southern New Hampshire. This is a very early look. There are many parts of this storm that remain a question mark. One of those questions will be the intensity of the storm. It remains unclear just how strong the storm will get.


NEXT WEEK


It looks like New England may finally get a break from storms next week as there are little indications of stormy weather at this time. It does look like it will be rather cold, with below average temperatures expected.




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