Chilly Breeze Continues Before a Weekend Warm-up for New England

Today, an upper-level low will drop down from the Nova Scotia area into New England's coastal waters, likely around eastern Maine. This system may retrograde westward a bit, putting New England within a trough. The pressure gradient will remain rather tight on Thursday, keeping conditions on the breezy side, with 20-30mph gusts. Canadian high pressure to our west and the developing trough centered just to our east will be responsible for this gradient.

As the upper-level low swings southwestward toward New England, it will likely help ignite some showers across eastern and northern Maine, as well as Cape Cod and the Islands for Thursday. A majority of this shower activity should remain offshore. Other than that, Thursday will be cooler and likely see big, puffy cloud development, especially across the coastal plain as the trough settles in. With some scattered showers expected across eastern Maine in the morning and chilly weather within the trough, Maine and New Hampshire's higher elevations could see some snow showers rather than rain showers.

Today will be the coolest day of the week as a cold pool of air aloft becomes more centered over New England. This cold pool will aid in cloud development this afternoon as well as mixing higher wind gusts (30-40mph) down to the surface. Highs today will likely struggle to reach the mid 50s anywhere in New England, with highs failing to break out of the 40s across the north.

Below: Temperature departure from average for this afternoon:

Winds aloft will peak tonight, however, the loss of daytime heating will make it much more difficult for gusts to reach the surface. Overall, the breeze will likely settle down tonight, but it is unlikely to die off completely. Gusts of 20-30mph will be possible. This leftover breeze will prevent overnight lows from completely bottoming out. Morning lows will likely drop into the low 30s north to low 40s south, which is certainly chilly, but not nearly as cold as it could have gotten if winds were to be calm tonight.

Below: HRRR showing potential morning lows Friday morning:

The pressure gradient will remain tighter to start Friday, but ease as the day goes on. In response, the breeze will likely gradually settle down as Friday goes on as the trough departs and high pressure slowly slides closer to New England, putting New England into the calmer ridging. A gradual warm-up will take effect Friday through the weekend as a more southerly flow develops ahead of an approaching warm front. Each day will likely be a notch warmer than the last as high pressure slides across New England.

Highs on Saturday should see widespread temperatures back into the 60s for New England (with 50s across the far north and mountains). Once the ridge of high pressure shifts eastward, a southerly return flow should promote temperatures reaching well into the 60s south of the mountains. Southern New England will have a shot at the 70° mark.

That cold front to the west of New England on the graphic above represents New England's next system. At this time, the system looks to take on a typical cold season setup with an upper-level low crossing to New England's north. A secondary low may form across southern New England along the system's triple-point. The initial slug of rain from the cold front will likely cross New England west to east Sunday night through Monday.

The formation, timing and strength of a secondary low will determine how much rain falls. Should this low form and become the primary low, a longer lasting, soaking rain will be possible. If this low does not take shape, or if its formation is delayed, a drier trend would be seen. Overall, next week is looking unsettled with slow-moving lows and frontal systems.