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Coastal Storm to Dump Several Inches of Rain on New England: Impacts, Timing, Alerts

A coastal storm will work up the east coast during the day today. This system will have the potential to produce very heavy downpours overnight Sunday into Monday morning for much of New England. Here's a breakdown of impacts and timing:



Sunday morning will see scattered showers around for much of New England. Maine will remain dry Sunday morning. Sunday early afternoon may end up being the driest part of the day for most of the region as showers become rather isolated. The coastal storm will steadily move up the coast throughout the day. Steadier rain will likely arrive in Connecticut and Rhode Island by mid afternoon.


The most intense rain bands are looking to impact New England from Sunday evening through early Monday morning as the coastal storm interacts with a cutoff low meandering over the Great Lakes (on a completely unrelated note for New England, this cutoff low will likely dump over a foot of snow on Michigan's upper peninsula). The heaviest rain will quickly spread south to north.

The heaviest rain will impact southern New England from about 6pm-2am. Vermont and New Hampshire will see these intense bands from about 8pm-4am. Much of Maine will see these bands from about 12am-8am. Note that these times are for the heaviest of the rain; rain will begin sooner. The overnight hours will also see the strongest winds. Winds will be strongest along the northern New England coast.

Expected conditions at 2am Monday morning, note the VERY heavy downpours concentrated over southwest Maine:


This storm will be moving VERY quickly. Southern and central New England will likely see rain end by sunrise. Once the rain ends, clouds will begin clearing quickly. Southern New England will likely see a mostly sunny sky for much of the day. Maine, being further north and east, will hold onto the steadier rain during the morning. However, even eastern Maine will likely see rain end by midday and see some sun by mid afternoon.

Expected conditions 2pm Monday, southern New England is completely cleared out (Note the cutoff low still hanging around the Great Lakes):


When all is set and done, much of the region could see multiple inches of rain; a majority of New England will see at least one inch. The highest rain totals will likely be in eastern New Hampshire and western Maine, where up to three inches could fall, with isolated amounts up to four-six inches. Southern New England will likely get "dry-slotted" which will cut down on amounts there, although an inch plus will still be common.

This much rain in a relatively short amount of time (a majority of the rainfall shown on the map will fall Sunday night to Monday morning) could lead to some flooding issues. Rivers and streams could reach flood stage by Monday, mainly in northern New England. Faster responding streams in southern New England could be at risk for flooding. Isolated flash floods are possible across most of New England, especially in eastern New Hampshire and the southern half of Maine.


Being a coastal storm, there will be some strong winds. The northern New England coast has a wind advisory posted. Gusts up to 50mph are possible. This is right at the threshold for some damage to occur. Sustained winds across much of New England will be 15-25mph, with the strongest winds at the coast. The wind threat has trended down for southern New England.


Fortunately, coastal flooding is not looking to be too much of an issue with astronomically low tides. Despite this, there is a chance for very minor flooding along the Maine coast. Splashover will be possible in southern New England.


That cutoff low will continue to hang around the Great Lakes throughout the coastal storm. After the coastal storm passes Monday night, the cutoff low will VERY slowly push eastward across New England. This will lead to a cool and showery week all week long. Next week is going very gloomy.



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