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Cold Front to Deliver Storms Today, Nice Start to Memorial Weekend

A cold front will push through New England throughout Thursday. This front will surge into western New England this morning and slow down this afternoon, providing focus for thunderstorms. The timing of the storms is starting to come together now, with some showers and storms popping up this morning.


The main round of storms is looking to begin to fire around midday or early this afternoon and push eastward throughout the afternoon. The evening is looking quieter with more isolated storms, but the Storm threat will remain until it gradually begins to wane after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Overall, storms are looking to be most widespread in southern New England and southern Maine.


Potential weather around midday (1st image) and mid-afternoon (2nd image):


As stated before, the evening is generally looking quieter than it did at this time yesterday with a more widespread batch of afternoon storms. With that said, a couple isolated storms could reignite in the evening, before sunset, as the front will likely stall out along New England's south coast.


Potential weather this evening



As far as the severe threat, it hasn't changed all that much. An earlier arrival of the storms means that they will not be able to tap into full daytime heat and humidity, which does lower the chances. With that said, the four main ingredients for severe storms will be present in some way today. Overall, isolated Severe storms are possible, but a severe weather outbreak is certainly not anticipated.



There will be plenty of lift from the cold front and moisture in the atmosphere. Shear is present, but not very strong to support widespread, long lasting severe storms for most of New England. Shear will be strongest across eastern Maine. Instability is also present, but CAPE values are not exactly off the charts, with values looking to range from 1,000 to 1,500. Mostly cloudy skies may limit the amount of instability that can build, especially with early afternoon storms.


With increased shear and potentially higher CAPE values, eastern Maine may end up with the best chance for stronger storms. In southern New England, the greater chances for stronger storms will generally be south of the Massachusetts Turnpike, but a stronger storm will be possible anywhere in the dark green shading on the map above. The main threats will be hail and strong straight-line winds. Torrential downpours are also possible within the storms.




This cold front won't do much for temperatures as Friday remains fairly warm, but the front will eliminate the bit of humidity that has built into the region. Dew points will remain on the lower end through the weekend.


Memorial Weekend is going to start off very nice weather-wise, with mainly dry conditions and temperatures in the 70s for most on Saturday. Sunday will be similar to Saturday with increased clouds and some isolated showers. Temperatures will be very similar to Saturday. More widespread showers will be possible heading later into Memorial Day itself as a frontal system approaches. Showers may be able to hold off until later in the day Monday. It will be cooler. That system may end up sticking with us for much of next week.


Euro showing potential weather on Monday afternoon:




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