Cooler, Breezy Weather Enters New England After Today; Unsettled Weather to Persist

The leading edge of precipitation has now moved away from a vast majority of New England this morning. The upper-level low remains across the Great Lakes region, with the secondary low moving west and eventually north of New England. This will continue to lift the system's warm front across the region into this afternoon and evening. This front will likely stall out across northern New Hampshire and Maine. South of the front will see a very mild late-November day today.

Temperatures this afternoon will likely push well into the 50s, with some areas likely making a run for the 60° mark across southern New England. It will be cooler across northern New Hampshire and Maine as the area may not fully get into the warm sector before the cold front passes later in the day. Temperatures in these areas will likely stall in the 40s, and even maybe upper 30s for northern Maine.

Below: High temperatures this afternoon:

Some isolated to scattered showers will likely pop up in the unstable warm sector throughout the day today, but a majority of the day will be dry. Plenty of places will likely remain completely dry for the remainder of the daylight hours. Later this evening and into the first part of the night, the system's cold front will push across New England. This will likely result in an increase in shower activity. Showers will be more numerous across northern New England this evening into early Thanksgiving morning. All but easternmost Maine should be done with these showers by daybreak Thanksgiving.

Below: HRRR showing potential weather late this evening:

The large-scale setup for Thanksgiving (and into Friday) will feature a mature upper-level low spinning across Quebec. This will result in broad cyclonic flow across the region. With the system's cold front having cleared New England by this time, cold air advection will be steadily ongoing. With that said, stronger cold air advection will likely hold off until later Thursday and peak on Friday.

Broad cyclonic flow will support puffy cloud development on Thanksgiving and the potential for a couple isolated and quick, pop-up rain/snow showers. This will be most likely in the mountains. A lake-effect snow event will be ongoing across Upstate New York, and some of the outer fringes of this activity may be able to produce a couple quick snow showers in westernmost New England. Overall, upslope snow showers and flurries on Thanksgiving will be very limited.

The core of the upper-level low across Quebec will pivot into New England on Friday. This will result in the stronger cold air advection and the peak of the polar air mass to settle over New England. Upslope snow showers will likely be more prevalent across New England on Friday than they will be on Thanksgiving.

More persistent activity is likely across the higher terrain (Greens, Whites and Berkshires, namely). Pop-up sprinkles or flurries will be possible anywhere in New England, however. A general 1-3 inches of snow will be possible across northern Vermont and New Hampshire by Saturday morning, with lesser amounts across the Berkshires.

Below: RGEM showing potential weather Friday afternoon:

Gusts on Thanksgiving will likely be in the 20-30mph range for most. Friday will likely see more wind as cold air really pours in. Highs will struggle to reach 40° anywhere in the region, and northern areas remaining below freezing, in the 20s and low 30s. The breeze will add even more bite to the air, with 25-35mph gusts. Gusts will be strongest across southern New England on Friday and weakest across eastern Maine. Winds will gradually settle over the weekend, except for eastern Maine, who will see gustier conditions on Saturday as the overall setup shifts east.

New England's next system will likely arrive later Sunday and into Monday. This system will very likely take an interior storm track. This would result in another setup with a warm front lifting northward, resulting in a milder storm. This milder air will be overrunning colder air settled at the surface, so mixed precipitation is possible across northern areas and the higher terrain, with a switch to plain rain occurring from south to north. This system appears that it will be pretty progressive as well.

Beyond that, general troughing remains in place. The Sunday night to Monday system may disrupt the flow of cold air, with a real quick warm-up. Once this system passes, much colder air has the potential to drain into New England heading toward mid-week next week. At the same time, a southern stream storm system will be working into the Mid-Atlantic. Where exactly the system goes from there is a big question. At this time, there doesn't appear to be any northern stream energy for this system to phase with.

There are two basic scenarios that could play out with this system. The first would be a stronger push of cold air and the system getting suppressed to New England's south. This would result in a glancing blow of light snow for southern areas or no snow at all. The second scenario would result in a weaker push of cold air and a storm track much closer to New England.

This would bring a widespread storm into New England, with the potential for widespread accumulating snow for much of the region. Any potential rain/snow line with this would be determined heavily by how much cold air will be in place. Basically, it's more cold and a glancing blow or less cold and a storm. The finer details (such as the exact track and exactly how much cold air would be in place should the storm come close) remain to be determined.

Below: Model round-up (Euro, GFS, CMC & AIFS) for Tuesday evening/night. Note the 50/50 split between the two scenarios above: