New England Weather This Week: Up and Down

This week will feature a stark rise in temperatures around midweek. This will be brief as colder air pours in toward the end of the week. This will also come with a round of rain just before Thanksgiving.

MONDAY & TUESDAY

Much of this time will be dominated by surface high pressure centered to New England's south. This high pressure will gradually slide across the region through Tuesday and move offshore and away from New England by Tuesday evening. This will result in milder and calm conditions for Monday.

Clouds will begin to increase on Monday night and through the day Tuesday from west to east as the next system begins to approach. Tuesday will be the milder of the two days as a southerly flow develops across the region, with widespread 40s across the region. Only the highest elevations and northern Maine will get held to the 30s.

Below: HRRR showing potential temperatures Tuesday afternoon:

Rainfall from our next system will steadily approach later Tuesday, but will likely hold off until after dark for a vast majority of the region, especially with these short days. Precipitation may break out as early as 4-5pm for Connecticut and western Massachusetts. These showers will continue to push north and east through the evening and into the overnight. We'll go more into this system in the next section since most of it will occur after dark Tuesday.

Below: HRRR showing potential weather Tuesday evening:

TUESDAY NIGHT & WEDNESDAY

Moving into Tuesday night, a deep trough will move through the Great Lakes region and into southern Quebec on Wednesday. A surface low pressure system will move northeastward ahead of this trough. This system will likely move west of New England before lifting eastward through northernmost New England. This will make this system an inside runner, dragging its warm front across the region and resulting in a widespread plain rain storm.

The rain will likely be most widespread and steadiest for a majority of the region late Tuesday and early Wednesday morning. Much of the rain will likely have moved out of New England by daybreak Wednesday. With that said, New England will remain in the system's warm sector through the day Wednesday.

This will lead to generally unstable conditions, so scattered showers may still pop up throughout the day at times, but more dry times are expected than wet times on Wednesday. Eastern Maine will see the most widespread rain activity during the day, as the storm (naturally) arrives later and exits later as it moves from southwest to northeast.

Below: Potential weather early Wednesday morning (1st image) and early Wednesday afternoon (2nd image):

There is the potential for some mixing and freezing rain at the onset when the system arrives Tuesday night, but this will likely be on the brief side before plain rain takes over for all, even the mountains. A glaze of ice or quick coating of snow may be possible across northernmost New England, particularly the Great North Woods of New Hampshire and near the Canadian border in Maine, but plain rain is expected to win out pretty much everywhere eventually.

Overall, a widespread quarter to half of rain is likely across the entire region. There will generally be more rain the farther south in New England you go. Some frozen precipitation will eat into rainfall amounts across northernmost areas. With a strong warm front pushing north through New England during this time, temperatures will likely rise after sunset Tuesday, and continue to rise through the day Wednesday. The freezing altitude is expected to push well over 5,000 feet by early Wednesday morning, so all but the highest summits of the Presidential Range will be above freezing.

Temperatures Wednesday afternoon will likely push well into the 50s, with some areas likely making a run for the 60° mark, for central and southern New England. It will be cooler across the northern tier as the area may not fully get into the warm sector before the cold front passes. Temperatures here will likely stall in the 40s, and even maybe upper 30s for northern Maine.

Below: AIFS showing potential temperatures Wednesday afternoon:

THURSDAY & FRIDAY

The system's cold front will push through New England later Wednesday through Thursday morning. This will put temperatures on a downward spin for Thanksgiving and into the holiday weekend. The system's cold front may ignite a round of scattered rain and snow showers Wednesday evening through Thursday morning, but it is unlikely to be widespread or too organized.

Stronger cold air advection will likely hold off until later Thursday and Friday. Thanksgiving will see blustery weather and highs in the 40s for most. Gusts on Thanksgiving will likely be in the 20-30mph range for most. Friday will likely see more wind as cold air really pours in. Highs will struggle to reach 40° anywhere in the region, and northern areas remaining below freezing, in the 20s and low 30s. The breeze will add even more bite to the air, with 25-35mph gusts. With stronger cold air advection and an upper low remaining north of New England, upslope snow showers will likely be more prevalent on Friday than on Thanksgiving.

Below: Euro showing potential weather Friday morning:

WEEKEND

High pressure is slated to move toward the region to start off the weekend. This would help bring an end to upslope snow shower activity. Overall, it appears to be a quiet weekend, with chilly temperatures. At this point, New England's next system is slated to approach later Sunday, but being a week out, this system could trend sooner or later over the coming days.

Below: Current weather map for Saturday morning: