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Cutoff Low Just Keeps Spinning...

Updated: Jun 7, 2023

New England has been in the midst of a very dreary weather pattern thanks to a blocked up pattern involving a cutoff low sitting just to New England's east. This area of low pressure has been cycling a lot of clouds and showers across eastern New England. This pesky low has pushed back west, toward New England.



This storm has been strengthening as it sits near Nova Scotia. The storm's central pressure has dropped below the 1,000 millibar mark. Wednesday will be generally dry, but showers will cycle through along with cool temperatures...what else is new?


There will be far less smoke from wildfires today across the region as there was yesterday. There was a thick haze from this smoke. Some parts of southern New England saw unhealthy air quality levels for even healthy individuals.


Wednesday through Friday will see a lot of clouds for most of the region with continued scattered showers. Temperatures will once again be below average. The Connecticut River Valley could be the exception, with temperatures once again looking to climb into the 70s for at least Wednesday. Showers will be most prevalent on Friday for most.


In a very typical blocking pattern move, it looks like it could last a bit longer than anticipated. The low is now looking to linger into Saturday with scattered showers and a mostly cloudy sky. Temperatures will still be warming up from Wednesday through Friday highs, however.


Euro showing continued shower activity on Saturday. (This makes it look worse than it will be, much of the day should remain dry):


Despite this, the storm will be very slowly pushing away late this week thanks to a strengthening NAO. By Sunday, the storm should be far away from New England, somewhere in the middle of the north Atlantic. Sunday is looking dry and warm for the entire region as this dreary pattern finally breaks down. The entire region should be in the 70s.


High pressure builds in for Sunday:

This break down may be very temporary as an area of low pressure looks to track across the county next week. This storm looks to drag an associated cold front across New England. This could bring a decent dousing of rain, especially for southern New England. There are some timing discrepancies, but it looks to move through sometime Monday to Tuesday.


Euro showing a cold front being dragged across New England early next week:


The area of low pressure could also become cut off near New England. This is supported by the fact that the NAO index is forecast to drop quickly after hitting zero this weekend. Again, there's plenty of wiggle room in next week's forecast and exactly where the area low pressure ends up will play a huge role in what parts of New England get what next week. There are also indications of temperatures being warm despite the potentially cloudy, unsettled weather. Stay tuned.



Yesterday, I wrote about the "light at the end of the tunnel" of this dreary pattern. That light is Sunday. That break is still there.

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