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Flood Watches up For Western Connecticut as Heavy Rain Moves into New England

Rain has begun falling across the western half of New England this morning. This shield of rain, which is moving in a south to north direction, will very slowly push eastward. As of mid-morning on Friday, steady rain is falling across western Connecticut and Rhode Island. Several inches of rain is expected in western New England by Saturday afternoon.


Radar as of 9:45am Friday:


Flash flooding concerns are centered over the New York City Metro area. As of 10am, several flash flood warnings are in effect across the New York City area. A flood watch is in effect through Saturday morning for Fairfield, Litchfield and New Haven counties in Connecticut.



These areas of New England could see upwards of 3 inches of rain with some guidance pushing up to 5-6 inches through Saturday morning. Six inch rainfall would likely be localized, with 2-3 inches being more widespread.



Over an inch of rain is anticipated just about everywhere south of the Mass Pike. Flood watches were not extended beyond western Connecticut as this rain will be falling over the course of about 18-24 hours. This may help to limit flash flooding.



The one issue is that locally heavy downpours could develop. If these downpours materialize, and a lot of rain falls quickly, that would create scattered flash flooding issues across eastern Connecticut and central and southeastern Massachusetts.


Western Connecticut, on the other hand, could very well see numerous flash floods today and tonight. Flash flood warnings and flood advisories are already in effect across the New York City Metro, and this weather will likely shift eastward into western Connecticut today. New England is right on the edge of the greatest area of concern today.



This threat of flash flooding will continue through today and into tonight as the shield of rain is very slow to move eastward. Areas that are seeing rain this morning will likely continue to see rain through Saturday morning.



Rainfall rates won't be consistent for the entire storm. Sometimes it will be a torrential downpours, other times it may be just drizzling. There could be a break in the rain for western Connecticut in the late morning to early afternoon before more downpours move into the area for the mid-afternoon through overnight.


HRRR showing steady rain continuing in southwestern areas this evening:


Steady rain and lighter showers will likely continue throughout the night and into Saturday morning, mainly south of the Mass Pike. The area of low pressure, which is off New England's south coast, will finally begin to move away during the day Saturday. Rain will shut down from west to east, though it may take a while for the rain to completely shut down Saturday afternoon. Rain will naturally linger the longest across the Cape and Islands.


HRRR showing continued showers south of the Mass Pike around mid-morning Saturday:


North of the Mass Pike, rain and showers will likely extend into central New England, up to Lake Winnipesaukee and the Rutland, Vermont areas, however, dry air will make it difficult to get appreciable rain in northern New England. Areas north of Lake Winnipesaukee and Rutland, Vermont will likely see no more than a couple light showers or remain dry completely.


High pressure takes over for New England once again on Sunday, leading to another stretch of dry and sunny weather for next week. Temperatures will also rise, with highs upwards of 10 degrees above average by Tuesday (October 3).



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