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Frontal Boundary Will Lead to Cool, Unsettled Weather For New England All Week

The potent cold front that swept through New England yesterday, bringing with it localized flooding and severe thunderstorms, has stalled just to New England's south amid yet another blocking pattern. As per the case with stalled frontal boundaries, multiple cutoff lows will ride the boundary and linger in the Gulf of Maine.



What is a cutoff low? This type of low is a system that has completely detached (or cutoff) from the main flow (west to east). When this happens, a storm can sit around the same area for days on end. They can also move in a westerly direction, completely opposite of the main flow.


Cutoff lows can be extremely difficult to forecast. Since these storms are cutoff from the main flow, the flow can't be used to forecast what these systems will do. With that said, a good idea of what's going to happen this week is coming into the picture. Here's a look:



THE WEEKEND (JUNE 3-4)


The first of multiple cutoff lows has set up shop to New England's east. This will feed scattered showers and clouds into eastern and coastal New England. This will also keep eastern New England much cooler. Afternoon highs will basically be the same as morning lows. Conditions will be drier and warmer in western New England. Northern Vermont will likely be the warmest place in New England this weekend with some sun and highs around 70.


Euro model showing a steadier rain in eastern New England Sunday evening:


The rainiest day during this time frame for southern New England looks to be Sunday as the cutoff low moves westward. Sunday afternoon and evening will feature the highest chance for a steadier rain. Northern New England will likely see continued light showers, again, with the exception of northern Vermont. Up to a half inch of rain is possible across Eastern Massachusetts, southeastern New Hampshire and areas closer to the Maine coastline through Sunday evening.



MONDAY-TUESDAY (JUNE 5-6)


Monday will likely feature conditions very similar to Saturday in regards to precipitation with eastern New England seeing clouds and scattered showers while western New England stays drier and warmer. Highs in eastern New England will be a good 10 degree warmer, reaching into the low 60s. Western New England will have another day in the low 70s. Northern Maine will likely remain in the mid to upper 50s through Thursday.


Temperature and wind on Monday afternoon. You can see warmer conditions to the west as well a clear circulation in the ocean where the cutoff low is:


Tuesday will see western New England cool down to temperatures that have been in place for eastern New England: low 60s. There are some indications that Tuesday will manage to get into the upper 60s in southern and central New England, but I'm not sold on that yet. A new cutoff low will likely drop south from Canada and stall near New England, bringing continued clouds and showers. Western New England will likely become wetter as well.



WEDNESDAY (JUNE 7)


At this time, it looks like temperatures will begin to moderate, with highs reaching into the upper 60s to possibly near 70. Tuesday's stalled cutoff low will likely hang around leading to, you guessed it, clouds and showers.


THURSDAY-FRIDAY (JUNE 8-9): PATTERN BREAKDOWN?


In a post on June 1st, I wrote "This low will be very slow to exit. So slow in fact that the extended forecast doesn't show its exit at all. It will likely be with New England through at least the end of next week." Two days later, there are indications that this blocked up pattern will begin to push away at the end of the week. These blocking patterns are extremely stubborn and take a while to break down.


Frontal maps for Friday and Saturday showing the boundary exiting between Friday and Saturday:


Both Thursday and Friday will likely see continued clouds and showers. Thursday will remain cool. Depending on the timing of the pattern breakdown, Friday may see temperatures begin to rebound. Highs could reach 70+ degrees in southern and possibly central New England. Again, this hinges on when the cutoff lows finally begins to pull away. If it lingers for most of Friday, it will be another day in the low to mid 60s for most.



BEYOND


There are indications of the pattern breaking down in time for next weekend, which would allow the sun to return, along with more summery temperatures. This is far from being locked in. As mentioned before, blocking type patterns are stubborn and can be slower to break down than expected. The block could also set back up after a brief breakdown. The NOAA 8-14 day outlook (which currently covers June 10-16) is favoring below average temperatures. Of course, we're getting two weeks out now (I realize I'm starting to get carried away now), so this is just something to keep in the back of the mind for now. There is room for major changes this far out.




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