Generally Quiet Weather Rules for New England Before Cut-Off Low Approaches

A cold front will approach New England this morning and will slowly cross New England through the day and into Thursday night. This will be a weak, moisture-starved front that will weaken further as it crosses the region. Very little to no showers are expected with this front and it will not have much of an impact on overall temperatures for this week. Warm-air advection ahead of this front will allow temperatures today to spike into the mid 70s to low 80s for much of the region.

After the passage of the cold front, a cool, Canadian high pressure system will build back into New England, with the week finishing almost exactly like it started. Friday will likely be the coolest day of the week given the fresh frontal passage. Temperatures will likely gradually moderate back toward seasonal averages through the weekend, with each day a couple degrees warmer than the last and 70s dominating.

Below: Expected temperatures Friday afternoon:

That Canadian high pressure system will be large and sprawl across much of the eastern United States. It will remain overhead on Saturday, allowing for a quiet and nice weekend day. The high pressure overhead will also allow for prime raditational cooling conditions Friday night and Saturday morning. Widespread lows in the 40s will continue with 30s possible in the northern Valleys. For maximum radiational cooling to occur, you need clear skies to allow daytime heat to escape as well as light winds.

New England's next shot at widespread rainfall will come Sunday into Monday as a frontal system meanders through New England. This system will lift a warm front into New England, increasing moisture and bringing stronger lift for showers. At this point, this doesn't appear to be a large rainmaker. It will likely bring widespread showers and possibly some thunderstorms. A widespread quarter to half an inch of rainfall is possible. The main question with the system will be timing out its arrival as it will be rather slow moving.

Another question with this system will be how long it hangs around into next week. Guidance suggests this system will become a cutoff low. General trends are also heading in this direction. It makes sense given the slow flow that will be in place. This could allow bouts of unsettled and mostly cloudy weather to continue into next week. Whether this occurs, or if more sunny and dry weather quickly returns will come down to the exact position of the low pressure system through early next week, especially since high pressure will follow quickly behind and attempt to build into New England.

Below: Daily weather maps from Sunday through Wednesday:

After this system pulls away by the middle of next week, signals point toward a bit of a warm-up developing for the region. This warm-up will remain centered over the central United States, but much of the country is looking at a better chance of above average conditions next week.