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Heat, Storms Continue through Thursday for New England

New England’s set up remains the same for Wednesday. A big difference is that morning lows will be milder than Tuesday morning, which will aid in temperatures getting a notch warmer than Tuesday. Also aiding in warmer temperatures will be lower precipitation chances, though a spot storm could pop up anywhere today. Highs will be in the 80s to low 90s for most with south facing coasts much cooler once again.

Another disturbance will be riding over the ridge to New England’s north, which could trigger isolated storms in the afternoon and evening again, but coverage should be much lower than what it was on Tuesday as storm ingredients will be much more muted. Daytime heating will be the primary source of storms for most of New England. Storm chances are highest across interior Maine and the Champlain Valley.

GFS showing expected weather this afternoon:

One other thing to keep in mind today is that an air quality alert is in effect for much of central and eastern Massachusetts as well as southern and central New Hampshire for high ground level o-zone. Air quality may reach unhealthy levels for sensitive individuals.

A cold front will cross New England during the day on Thursday. It looks like the front will enter New England in the morning and clear eastern New England by the first part of Thursday night. This timing reduces storm chances for Vermont, which may see some scattered storms in the morning to early afternoon, but these would likely be more muted.

Overall, Thursday is looking to be an active day with thunderstorms scattered around throughout the day. This does not look like it will be a classic solid line of thunderstorms ahead of the front, but more disorganized storms around. Some areas could see multiple storms with the scattered nature of the storms. One round of storms may fire in the early to mid afternoon with another in the evening (plus a round in northern New England in the morning).

As of now, most models keep a bulk of the activity in the afternoon across southern New England. Despite this, thunderstorms will be possible anywhere in New England. Evening storms will hinge on the amount of activity that occurs in the afternoon. More activity in the afternoon will make it more difficult for evening activity to sustain itself. Not much afternoon activity will lead to more widespread evening activity.

As far as severe potential, the ingredients will try to get in place. There will be plenty of moisture and lift ahead of the front, along with shear. The usual question will be the amount of instability. It will overall be a cloudier day (but likely not overcast), which could limit surface heating. CAPE values are looking to be in the 600-1,200 area, which isn't all that high for severe weather. Overall, the severe threat is looking isolated, but any storm that does form will be able to become strong to severe.

With plentiful moisture in place ahead of the cold front, some torrential downpours will be possible with the storms, similar to yesterday. A couple flash flood warnings were issued yesterday evening as storms dropped a quick inch plus of rain in areas. A similar situation could play out again Thursday. We're not saying a widespread flooding event will occur or anything, but heavy rain will accompany storms.

After the frontal passage, it will stay on the warmer side with 70s and 80s sticking around through the weekend. The cold front will reduce humidity levels and take away the slightly muggy feel of Wednesday and Thursday.

The next more widespread precipitation chance is looking to come later Sunday into Monday as a deeper trough digs into the northeast. Shower chances look to be increased from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday. After that will depend on the evolution of the trough.

Euro showing potential weather on Memorial Day:

Regardless of how the early week system plays out, next week will definitely be cooler than this past week. Of course, cooler in this case may just mean a return to more seasonable conditions of late-May. This cooler and potentially more unsettled week next week can be seen on the Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 day outlooks (which covers May 27-31).



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