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Here We Go Again: Cut Off Low Meanders Toward New England This Week

Fun fact: Prior to this article, the term "cut off" has appeared a total of 33 times across 12 articles on New England Storm Center since June 1st. That is just a testament to how blocked up this weather pattern has been all month long. With that said, this pattern is not going anywhere quite yet as another cut off low very slowly pushes toward and eventually across New England this week. Here's what to expect:




RAIN & THUNDERSTORMS


The phrase "not a washout" has likely also appeared many times throughout the month on this website. This holds true this week as each day will present rain and thunderstorm chances, however, no day is likely to be an all day washout. As has been the case for the entire month, there will be plenty of dry times for most between the scattered showers and storms, and the sun popping out will be possible throughout the week. The afternoon and evening will generally be the wettest time of day.


Thunderstorms will be more prevalent this week than previous weeks. Thunderstorms are possible across the entire region from Monday through Wednesday, although they look to become less likely as you get into Maine, with Maine seeing mostly showers and downpours without the thunder and lightning. Overall, the further south you go, the more thunder and lightning will likely occur.



Strong to severe storms will be possible during the early part of the week, especially in southern New England. While a severe outbreak is extremely unlikely, some isolated storms could go rogue. The Storm Prediction Center has southern New England in the "marginal" risk of severe weather on Monday. The severe weather is looking to stay south of New England.



The primary risk for thunderstorms (and non-thunderstorm showers) will be heavy downpours bringing locally torrential rainfall. That leads us to the next segment...



FLOODING CONCERNS


Torrential downpours moved through parts of New England over the weekend. There is a chance for downpours every single day this week. Due to this, flooding will become more and more of a concern as the week progresses. Since the storms and downpours will be scattered in nature, flooding will likely remain localized. There will likely be large differences in total rainfall this week from one community to the next.


The Weather Prediction Center has large parts of New England in the "marginal" category for excessive rainfall every day through at least Thursday (WPC outlooks only go 5 days in advance).



Storms likely move slowly and/or train (training occurs when multiple storms move over one area in a short period of time). This would lead to flash flooding in poor drainage areas. Some smaller rivers and streams could also rise, especially as the downpours continue day after day.



TEMPERATURES & HUMIDITY


Temperatures will generally slightly below average to seasonable in spots this week. Temperatures will be getting as warm as they are thanks to a continued southerly flow bringing in high humidity. A backdoor cold front is looking to move through Maine for Monday, this would lower humidity levels and therefore allow cooler temperatures, especially in the coastal and eastern half of the state. Much of the region will hang around in the 70s this week with much of Maine possibly getting stuck in the 60s.


WEEKEND


The ever important holiday weekend is questionable at best at this time. There are signals of a slight pattern shift that would allow showers and storms to be more isolated and for some more sun. What we know is that the current cut off low will likely lift through the region late in the week, but New England will remain under cyclonic flow through the weekend, meaning showers and storms will likely be in the picture. Another low may work across the country late in the week as well. The weekend forecast will need to be watched closely as everything just mentioned could shift as the week progresses.



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