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Looking Ahead at New England's Next Storm

New England will remain very quiet weather-wise from now through the weekend. Cold temperatures will stick around through Friday morning before a southerly flow takes over, allowing for more mild temperatures. By Saturday, New England will see widespread 40s and 50s. Highs on Sunday will be even warmer, with some areas of southern New England pushing 60° later in the day.

On top of the warmer weather, the weekend will be mainly dry. Saturday will see partly to mostly cloudy skies across the region. Sunday will see overcast skies ahead of our next storm, but many areas will stay dry for much of the daylight hours.

Temperatures Saturday afternoon:

This mild weather coming in is thanks to this incoming storm, which will feature a strong southerly wind, allowing temperatures to surge. Because of this, the storm will be a soaking rain event for New England, with a little snow on the backside for northern New England.

The storm features an area of low pressure tracking to the north of New England. This track is what allows the strong southerly flow. This track will also drag a potent cold front across New England overnight Sunday to Monday morning. Ahead of the front will see a shield of moderate to heavy rainfall cross the region.

Rainfall will move into New England from west to east starting Sunday afternoon. An area of high pressure off the coast will likely initially cause the rain shield to slowly move into New England. So, while Vermont and the Berkshire may see showers break out in the early to mid afternoon, areas further east will likely remain dry until at least late-afternoon. Being several days, exact timing still needs to be hammered down. That will come down to the timing of the high pressure exiting the coast.

Potential weather Sunday afternoon (1st image) and early Monday morning (2nd image):

The bulk of the rain will likely exit Monday morning, however, showers may linger across much of New England through the afternoon. Exactly when precipitation shuts off still needs to be worked out, still being 5 days out. As stated before, snow will likely wrap around on the backside after the frontal passage for northern New England. It currently doesn't look too much snow will fall at this time, with a few inches possible at elevation and lesser amounts into the valleys, mainly in Vermont and the White Mountains.

Euro, GFS and CMC showing potential weather Monday afternoon. Euro remains faster with the exit of the storm:

As for flooding, a widespread 1-2 inches of rain will be likely across New England as the shield of rain moves through. Western New England remains the area likely to see the most. This may trigger some river flooding in Vermont with the rainfall combining with snowmelt. At this time, major flooding remains unlikely, but some minor issues may arise. The WPC does have a majority of New England in the "marginal" category for excessive rainfall.

Current NBM rainfall forecast:

Another hazard with this storm will be strong winds. A couple days ago, when I first wrote about this storm, I was going to include a wind gust forecast map, but decided not to since I had a feeling models would likely begin to back off of what they were advertising for wind gusts. That is what has happened.

That's not to say it won't be windy at all. Gusts could approach 40mph across eastern New England with gusts to 50mph along the coast, mainly the Cape and islands. There will be very strong winds aloft, the question remains just how much of that wind can make it to the surface.

Euro model showing potential wind gusts early Monday morning. You can also clearly see where the cold front is on the map. Winds abruptly shift from the south to the northwest:

One last hazard will be the potential for some coastal flooding. With the strong southerly flow, large waves and beach erosion is possible, mainly along New England's south coast. Depending on the exact timing, some coastal flooding will be possible along the south coast as well. The extent of this hazard will come down to whether or not max surge will coincide with high tide. Tides are not astronomically high, which will aid in limiting this impact.

Regardless of how long precipitation lingers into Monday, it will remain breezy all day across New England. Temperatures will also likely plummet, but, considering we'll be 15-20° above average during the storm, this will likely just mean a return to average temperatures. After this storm, New England will likely be looking at another break from active weather next week.



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