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Memorial Weekend Weather: Beautiful Start; Wet End

The cold front that sliced through New England on Thursday has set up a very nice start to the Memorial Weekend. This cold front will very slowly continue its southward March today after stalling near the south coast. A secondary cold front will push through the region Friday, however, yesterday's cold front sucked the moisture out of the atmosphere with dew points now in the 40s for most. This means that this frontal passage will be dry and not really noticed. The only part of New England to see rain on Friday will be northern Maine.


SATURDAY


Saturday will be very similar to Friday for most with weak high pressure building in for the day. Highs will be a notch cooler than Friday, mainly in the 70s, with plenty of sunshine. High pressure building in will lead to a weaker flow, which will make it easier for a sea breeze to develop. This will keep the beaches cooler, but the sea breeze isn't looking to push too far inland. Highs will be in the mid 70s to low 80s across New England with upper 60s to low 70s at the coast.



SUNDAY


On Sunday, a very weak low pressure system (the central pressure will likely be around 1,010 millibars; for context, the average air pressure is around 1,013 millibars) will slide through New England, bringing some clouds and isolated showers and maybe a quick thunderstorm or two. These showers will likely be very few and far between with a vast majority of the day ending up dry. While the system will bring an increase in clouds, it's unlikely to be overcast all day. Temperatures will end up very similar, and in some places, identical, to Saturday.


GFS showing very light showers cropping up on Sunday:



MEMORIAL DAY


Monday will start off dry, but clouds and showers will move in from west to east as the day goes on ahead of a large-scale system coming out of the Great Lakes. Trends over the past couple days have been toward a later arrival time for this system. Showers will likely begin to break out into the afternoon, but the bulk of the rain for most of New England is looking to occur after dark Monday through Tuesday morning. Should this later trend continue, a drier Memorial day will be in store.


GFS showing potential weather Monday afternoon:


Temperatures will be a notch cooler with thickening clouds and some showers around. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s rather than the weekend's 70s and 80s. Humidity will also begin to increase once again as a more southerly flow develops ahead of the system.


This incoming system has trended toward a bit of a more potent one for Monday night into Tuesday. The system may end up anomalously strong for the time of year. A strong low-level jet will create a moisture-rich atmosphere, leading to a steady, potentially windswept, rain event. As of now, guidance is pointing toward less than an inch of rain for all of New England through Tuesday.



The Weather Prediction Center does have New England (with the exception of Maine) in the "marginal" category (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall. This is mainly due to the fact that thunderstorms could develop Monday night. Should that occur, areas that see a storm could see torrential downpours and locally higher rainfall amounts.




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