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Messy Storm Incoming for New England

A storm system will be traversing New England during the day on Thursday. While this storm will be weak and precipitation will be generally light and scattered, it will still create a cold and raw day for everyone. With the storm's setup, there is a chance for all precipitation types across New England (rain, snow, sleet, freezing rain and graupel).

The storm's leading edge will likely enter into western New England early Thursday morning. This initial onset of precipitation will likely be cold enough for a wintry mix or snow in all of western New England, however, lower elevation areas of southern New England will likely switch to plain rain rather quickly as the storm progresses eastward. Areas of northern New England that initially start as snow will likely transition to a wintry mix or ice by sunrise Thursday.

There is very dry air in place, and this air may delay the start time of when the precipitation is able to reach the ground. Should the precipitation start later in the morning, it would result in more plain rain and less snow/ice for most areas, especially southern New England. The bulk of the precipitation has also trended further north, keeping most of southern New England out of the precipitation until the temperatures begin to warm.

Expected weather early Thursday morning (1st image) and just after sunrise Thursday. A bulk of the precipitation is in northern New England:

The storm's overall setup lends itself to this being one of those "messy mix" type of storms. Cold air has been put in place over New England thanks to a rather strong cold front that is dropping through New England today (Tuesday). As this storm approaches, it will tap into that cold air, however, a warm front will lift through the region over the cold surface air. Whenever you have warm air lifting over a cold surface, it is prime for a variety of precipitation types.

Southern New England and southern New Hampshire will see primarily rain (after a quick onset of frozen precipitation) as the temperature at the surface climbs well above freezing by Thursday morning. Areas of northern New England may remain below freezing at the surface into the afternoon. This would lend itself to freezing rain and some icing depending on how deep the warm layer of air is aloft. Sleet will be falling as well.

By Thursday afternoon, much of New England will see plain rain showers. Pockets of northern New England, particularly in the higher elevations, will continue to see a wintry mix. Precipitation in the afternoon will be light and more scattered around. Western New England will likely start to wind down, with just an overcast sky by early afternoon.

Expected weather in the early afternoon. Scattered rain showers in southern and central New England, a mix and snow continuing in northern areas and precipitation winding down in western New England:

The storm will be a quick hitter and will be over for most of New England by the evening. Only northern Maine will likely still be seeing snow at this time. As stated in the beginning, this is a weak storm and precipitation will generally be light and more scattered around. This will not be a high-impact storm, with any snow accumulations likely remaining under 2 inches and any ice accumulations remaining under a tenth of an inch. Rainfall will also be light, likely remaining under a quarter inch.



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