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Mild Weekend for New England, but a Cooler Pattern is on the Way

This weekend will see above average temperatures for New England once again. Saturday will be a quiet day as a southwesterly flow from an area of high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast creates mild conditions. On Sunday, an area of low pressure will cross to the north of New England. This system will drag its cold front across the region throughout Sunday.

This front will touch off a line of showers that will enter Vermont just after midnight and spread south and east through the morning. The bulk of the shower activity will be over for most of New England by Sunday afternoon. Eastern Maine will stick with more widespread rain and showers for most of the day. Outside of eastern Maine, isolated showers will continue in the afternoon, but most of the time will be dry. There could be some breaks in the overcast as well.

HRRR showing expected weather from midnight tonight through Sunday afternoon:

Unlike many of our previous systems over the past month or so (and really all winter long), this system will not have elevated moisture to work with, so the showers will remain generally on the light side, with most areas seeing a quarter inch or less of rain. Eastern Maine and the mountains will see the most, where up to a half inch is possible. A dusting to a few inches of snow will be possible across northern Maine and the mountains, mainly on non-paved surfaces. A change to rain is likely from south to north in Maine during the day.

The cold front that is responsible for the Sunday showers will allow cooler air to filter into New England. It will become breezy after the frontal passage. This will be part of a longer-term pattern shift that will bring New England cooler weather. We want to emphasize cool, not cold as guidance continues to point toward near to slightly below seasonal averages. It may feel cold after such a mild end to February and start to March.

This more persistent cool down is coming thanks to a ridge-in-the-west-trough-in-the-east pattern setting up starting this weekend as the ridge in the west begins to build. This trough over the east should be able to hold through much of next week, keeping the chill around. It will likely be breezy to start the week, which will add to the raw feeling. There will generally be more clouds in northern New England, which will keep those areas cooler than average.

This setup will keep larger-scale ocean storms away from New England during this time. Despite this, being in a trough could mean unsettled weather. While there won't be any widespread, impactful weather for much of next week, a couple disturbances and cold fronts will trickle through, leading to some scattered snow and rain showers, mainly in northern areas. A majority of the time will be dry for everyone.

The most "widespread" shower activity may come sometime Tuesday night or Wednesday morning as an Alberta Clipper system could pass through New England. I put widespread in quotes since the shower activity could encompass most of New England, but will likely remain spotty, light and very low impact. There remains uncertainty on whether or not this system will have the moisture to work with to produce much of anything.

Weather map for Wednesday morning showing the clipper in New England. Whether this is able to produce much of anything by way of precipitation remains to be seen:

Early indications show the trough over the east starting to break down by late next week and into the weekend. This could open the door for a larger-scale system to enter New England by the end of the week. This could be the region's next real chance for widespread precipitation.



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