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New England Independence Weekend Weather: Dry Times and Wet Times

Updated: Jul 2, 2023

After such a rainy and cloudy June for most in the region, a nice fourth of July weekend would be great. It may also seem like a pipe dream at this point. The good news is that there will be dry times over the next four days, along with some times of rain. Here's a breakdown of what to expect:


SATURDAY


The holiday weekend starts off very nice with another mainly dry day for New England. Since the unsettled pattern is still ongoing, there is a "non-zero" chance of showers (that phrase fits this pattern perfectly), especially for the White Mountains through northern Maine. Any shower activity that does erupt in these areas should be quick and light, and most of the day will be partly to mostly cloudy. The rest of New England should remain dry.


I write should since an isolated pop-up afternoon thunderstorm is not completely out of the question for western areas, particularly across northern Vermont. Temperatures will be very seasonable, with highs in the low to mid 80s for a vast majority of the region. The immediate coast will be a notch cooler thanks to an onshore flow.




SUNDAY


New England's next storm approaches as the parade of low pressure systems rolls on. Thunderstorms and showers will break out in the morning on Sunday. The shield of precipitation will continue in a southeast direction throughout the day. Southern and eastern New England will likely see the steadiest rain overnight Sunday night to Monday morning, although scattered, light showers will occur throughout the day.


This storm will be very similar to other recent rainstorms, where the rainfall rate will vary throughout the event. Sometimes it will be a downpour and other times it will just be cloudy with some drizzle. This means that there is the potential for torrential downpours in some of the storms. A widespread quarter to a half an inch of rain is possible through Monday morning.


Temperatures will likely stall in the 70s across the region as thick clouds and eventual rain will limit warming. Overall, southern New England will see the best conditions Sunday as the steadier rain chances arrive later in the day as opposed to the morning in areas north and west.



MONDAY


Monday will remain very unsettled with showers and thunderstorms hanging around the region all day as the low sits to our west. As has been the case for most of this past week, the most widespread shower and storm activity will take place in the afternoon. The day won't be a total washout, and southern New England could see stretches of partly cloudy weather during the day. Highs will be seasonable, in the upper 70s to low 80s with some mid 80s in Connecticut. There could be locally very heavy rainfall in the storms.


Showers and storms hanging around Monday:

Model provided by tropicaltidbits.com


4TH OF JULY


On Independence day itself, the area of low pressure will likely move through New England. The good news is that this does NOT mean it will be a rainy day all day. At this time, it looks like it there will be variable clouds most of the time with scattered thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. Torrential downpours embedded in the storms become less of a threat on Tuesday.


Tuesday's forecast hinges on the timing of the passage of the low pressure system. If the system moves through faster, it could lead to less storm chances, especially in western areas. A slower passage would result in more thunderstorms around. Based on recent trends, I would lean toward a slower passage, but remember a slower passage still doesn't mean a washout, it would lead to conditions mentioned in the above paragraph. Highs, again, should be seasonable.


The exact timing and magnitude of the showers and storms remains a bit of a question mark. This will, again, hinge on timing. The greatest chance for storms will be the afternoon, so keep an eye to the sky if you're planning to be outside. The threat of storms will likely diminish after sunset, so fireworks shows should be generally okay. We'll know more about timing as we move through the weekend, so stay tuned to the forecast.


Euro Model showing the center of the low pressure crossing Massachusetts Tuesday afternoon. Do NOT interpret all that green as rain all day:

Model provided by tropicaltidbits.com


BEYOND


Looking to mid-week and beyond, the area of low pressure will have slid to our east and a drying trend is looking increasingly likely for Wednesday through maybe Friday. Eastern Maine may have to deal with continued showers on Wednesday. Much more sun is anticipated at this time. With sun and stable conditions, temperatures look to climb above average. Humid conditions will continue through the week.


Thursday, looking very dry:


For the first time in over a month, there are signals southern New England could get into real summer heat late next week. Over a week out, this could change. The last time above average heat was in the forecast (June 21-23), it completely fell apart. The set up is different with the Omega Block starting to weaken, but I'm not hanging my hat on this quite yet. The overall block-style pattern does look to continue.


A cold front may approach next Friday or Saturday (July 7-8), this could finally knock down humidity levels and bring rain back into the forecast, but this far out, we'll need to keep watching.



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