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New England's Weather is About to be Very...Calm

It's been a pretty busy year for New England's weather. For much of the summer (and into the fall), it seemed to be a heavy rain and flooding event after heavy rain and flooding event. This week's upcoming weather pattern is set to bring New England an extended break from active weather.

Last Saturday, we published an article talking about the fact that "zonal flow" set up over the United states and how this would lead to overall quiet weather without major storms forming. This flow has been in place for about a week now, and will generally remain in place through the upcoming week.

The difference between this past week and next week is that last week saw several areas of low pressure quickly move through the flow while this upcoming week will see almost nothing move through. This will take what created a mostly calm week for this past week and create a very calm week upcoming.

Starting this weekend, in addition to the zonal flow, high pressure will begin to build into New England. This high pressure will set up shop to the west of New England. This placement of the high pressure will help continue the northwest flow into New England, keeping the region chilly.

So, while it will be dry this weekend, temperatures will be 5-10 degrees below average, with 40s in southern New England and 30s in northern New England. Overall, the departure from average will be greatest in northern New England. Overnight lows will be cold, with the first widespread hard freeze (28° or lower) possible Sunday night. Basically all of New England will drop into the 20s with some teens across northern areas.

Departure from average temperatures Saturday afternoon:

Heading into Monday, high pressure remains in control, and likely moves directly overhead of New England. This will create another day similar to the weekend with dry, quiet weather and cool (but closer to average) temperatures.

Looking at the big picture on Monday, a ridge in the jet stream starts to build across the west, with a trough digging into the northeast. This is where the one (small) wrinkle in this quiet weather comes.

This trough will allow a weak, fast-moving disturbance to come through New England Monday night into Tuesday morning. This disturbance has very limited moisture and likely won't create much more than some scattered, light rain/snow showers, mainly across the north.

After the disturbance on Tuesday morning, the ridge to our west begins to slide east, but also flatten. This will return the east to a more zonal flow once again. This will also allow for high pressure to build back into the region. The position of the high pressure will likely be to our southwest, which will allow more mild air to enter New England.

Tuesday and Wednesday are looking more seasonable with above average temperatures possible late week. These temperatures will likely not be well above average like in the Midwest, so don't expect to be basking in the 70s, but it will certainly feel more mild after a week or so below average. High pressure will also aid in keeping the region bright and dry.

Looking beyond Thursday, models start to diverge on what exactly will happen, which is expected as we're now looking a week out. Zonal flow may start to break down once again, allowing for troughing to enter New England. Models are currently depicting Friday (November 17) as the next day where widespread precipitation is possible (after the very brief Monday night disturbance).

Again, being a week out, timing varies with some models having an area of low pressure coming on Friday with others pushing it to Saturday. Despite the uncertainty around a potential area of low pressure, major models currently agree that the more mild air will stick around after Thursday.

So, the bottom line is to expect plenty of sun and quiet weather for at least a little while. As we continue to head into winter, stretches like this will become more rare.



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