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New England Thanksgiving Weather Outlook

Next week's weather in New England isn't looking too special, which, in this case, is a (mostly) good thing. There does appear to be a speed bump coming right before the holiday and some chilly weather, however. The weather pattern across the United States is currently shifting, which has been expected. Remember this is an early outlook and may change, but these are the current trends.


Here's the summary, read below for the details:



After this weekend's storm, a cold front will be dragged across the region, which will end a brief bout of above average temperatures. Sunday of next week should feature dry and brighter weather than Saturday, except for some lingering snow showers in the mountains.


Monday and Tuesday are currently looking to be dominated by high pressure, leading to continued calm weather and generally bright skies. The high pressure will likely be set up to the west, which will lead to a more northerly flow and chilly temperatures. Highs will likely be below average, but certainly not full winter-like. It will be blustery, however, so it will feel nippy out there.


By Wednesday, the shifting pattern across the United States will come into play. For the past couple weeks, the US has been in what's called zonal flow, which has led to mostly calm weather without large-scale storms forming. Starting this weekend, this flow will begin to break down, with larger ridges and troughs in the jet stream forming. This pattern change is expected as a prolonged period of strong zonal flow in the fall to winter months would be rare.



This will support more unsettled weather and storm activity, which can be seen with a region-wide storm coming this weekend. By the middle of next week, a trough is looking to dig into the central United States, with a storm forming. Models have been adamant for the past couple days that this storm system will track up to the northeast by Wednesday (November 22). Models have not (yet) budged from this timing.


This map shows what's called the 500mb height anomaly. This can be used to see troughs and ridges in the jet stream. You can see a trough digging into the Great Lakes region on Tuesday:



With that said, it does look like the day before Thanksgiving will be wet and possibly windy. How strong this storm gets remains to be seen but it could have the potential to be a soaking storm with some gusty winds. The exact track of the system will play a big role in how it affects the region. This does currently look to be a mainly rain event for most of New England with some mixing and snow in the higher elevations of northern New England as well as northern Maine.


What the Euro, GFS and CMC models are currently showing for Wednesday afternoon. This is absolutely NOT locked in:



For Thanksgiving day itself...it depends. It will depend on how quickly the storm mentioned above is able to exit. All major models have also been adamant that the storm will exit in time for Thanksgiving, with dry conditions returning except for some lingering mountain snow showers. Being over a week now, we need to keep watching the trends as timing could very well shift.


Friday and the weekend will likely be dry as signals show high pressure building back into the region.


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