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New England Weather: Cold Front Wednesday; Watching Weekend Storm

It's going to be a generally quiet week, with a couple bumps along the road. Here's a breakdown of the week ahead, including an early look at Memorial Weekend.


High pressure builds into New England, leading to mostly sunny skies across the region. A cold front that moved through New England overnight has knocked the temperatures down from where they were on Sunday, however, the Litchfield Hills, Connecticut River Valley, Berkshires and southern Green Mountains will still warm to around average. Areas closer to the coast will be cooler as an easterly wind pushes the sea breeze further inland.

Tuesday will basically be a repeat of Monday, but a notch warmer across the region. The flow remains onshore, leading to a cooler coast once again. There will be a milky haze across the sky as smoke continues to stream in from the Canadian wildfires.

High pressure keeps New England very quiet to start the week:


Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week for the entire region as flow switches from onshore to offshore. This will allow areas closer to the coast to warm up to levels they were unable to on Monday and Tuesday.

A cold front begins to drop through the region in the afternoon from northwest to southeast. The current timing of the front has it reaching southern New England after sunset Wednesday. Showers will break out as the front passes, though showers will become less widespread by the time it makes it to the Massachusetts border. Maine is looking at the most widespread and longest lasting showers Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Cold front at 8am Wednesday. This front will be dropping through the region throughout the day:


Thursday will be the cool day of the week as the front clears the region. The day will be a standard day-after-cold-front day with mainly sunny skies and a cool breeze. The exception will be northern Maine, where an area of low pressure will create continued showers.

Friday will be similar to Tuesday with mostly sunny skies and temperatures a touch warmer than Thursday. Highs will be around average on Friday for the entire region. The temperature forecast has trended up for the end of the week quite a bit since yesterday.


Yesterday, it was looking like this upcoming weekend would be generally unsettled and showery as an area of low pressure closed in on the region. Currently the models are keeping this storm system to the south, which would lead to a dry and warmer weekend. Right now, the system is looking to get cutoff and stall around the Carolinas keeping the storm out of New England this weekend.

Euro model keeping the storm south of New England. This model shows that area of low pressure swirling around the Carolinas all weekend:

Some models, however, still have the system moving up the coast and bringing showery weather to southern New England this weekend. Northern New England is looking less and less likely to see much of any rain through at least Sunday morning. Unfortunately, the takeaway is that this weekend is uncertain as of now, we'll have to keep watching how the storm unfolds, as this set up is complicated and models are having trouble figuring it out right now.


The complex pattern this weekend is part of a blocking pattern, which can last for a while as they tend to break down very slowly. With the low pressure system currently forecast to blocked to our south, it would allow New England to stay seasonable to warm. You can see on the NOAA's 6-10 day temperature outlook that cooler temps are forecast where the low is forecast to stall. If this low ends up stalling further north, it would lead to cooler conditions in New England. Again, the first scenario (the one currently forecast) is the more likely one, but it's something to watch as this week progresses.



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