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New England Weather: Freezing Morning Thursday; Watching Saturday Storm

A potent cold front has pushed through New England, dropping temperatures 15-20 degrees from yesterday's highs versus today's highs. This front will also create gusty winds. It will be mostly sunny Wednesday, which is why temperatures will be getting as high as they are today. The front's full fury will be felt after the sun goes down tonight. Temperatures will bottom out, much of New England is under a freeze watch for Thursday morning.



Thursday morning lows will drop into the low 30s for most of interior New England, on either side of the freezing mark. Temperatures may be able to fall into the upper 20s in higher elevations, all the way down to the Berkshires and Worcester Hills of Massachusetts. An onshore flow may keep the coast from dropping into the low 30s. This flow is expected to shift in the second half of the night (which is why coastal Massachusetts is not included in the freeze watches). How quickly the flow shifts will determine if a freeze occurs at the coast.



This cold snap does not last long as Thursday rises to near average temperatures in the afternoon. By Friday, most of New England will be back into the 70s. Temperatures will drop again Saturday; this time due to an incoming storm.


An area of low pressure will track across the country and arrive in New England for the weekend. As of now, it appears that the low will track to the north of New England. As per usual with this kind of track, it will drag an associated cold front across our region. This will create a large plume of moisture that will dump steady rain across New England.


The passage of the cold front looks to happen late Saturday night through Sunday morning, although models have yet to come into total agreement on this timing. Showers look to break out Saturday morning as a trough approaches New England from the south, however, the main bulk of the rain will occur when the cold front passes through in the evening. Some models are trending toward a later arrival, with the bulk of precipitation coming through late Saturday night through Sunday morning.



Euro model showing showers breaking out before the frontal system arrives, thanks to a trough working up the coast:


This storm is looking to give New England a pretty decent soaking, which is needed for the parched southern New England. This will also put a nice damper on a recent wave of brush fires that have broken out across Massachusetts this week.


This does not look like a repeat of northern New England's flooding event that took place at the beginning of the month. A widespread half an inch to three quarters of an inch of rain is looking to fall. Cape Cod and western Maine are currently the jackpots, with up to an inch forecast to fall in these areas.


NBM guidance on rain totals by Sunday midday:


Being several days from this storm, timing and rainfall totals may change. Models are starting to come into better agreement after being all over the place early in the week (which is why I didn't bring this storm up until now). These are current trends, so stay with New England Storm Center as this week progresses.



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