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New England Weather This Week: Active

It's going to be a busy week for the weather in New England this week with multiple rounds of low pressure moving through the area. With milder air in place, rain will dominate the precipitation type. Areas in southern New England will likely see multiple inches of rain this week, with most of it falling during the midweek storm.


QPF (amount of rain and melted snow) through Saturday morning:


MONDAY


Monday will be a quiet and warm, but mainly cloudy day across much of New England. A ridge will be in place over the eastern United States, which will support mild temperatures, but clouds will limit just how warm it's able to get, especially compared to areas a bit further west of New England.


Highs will top out in the mid 40s to low 50s across areas that don't see much sun. Areas that do see more breaks in the clouds, like on Sunday, will have the chance to climb well into the 50s.


Temperature departure from average across the United States showing mild conditions in New England, but more warmth just to our west:



TUESDAY


New England's next system in this train of low pressure will arrive on Tuesday morning in the form of a weak coastal low as the ridge begins to break down. This system will track through southern New England, spreading rain into the region from southwest to northeast during the day. With mild air in place, this will be a rain-only event.



It will also be rather quick hitting, bringing a shot of rain that could add up to a widespread half an inch for southern and central New England. Northern areas will generally see less. Moisture in the atmosphere will be elevated, so periods of moderate rain will be possible with this system. It will likely be similar to this past Saturday's system.


Expected weather Tuesday afternoon:


While still above average, highs will likely be notch lower thanks to the thick cloud cover and rainfall. Highs will likely top out in the 40s across the region. The system will gradually wind down from southwest to northeast through the evening with eastern Maine seeing showers through much of the night.



WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY


Tuesday's system will have pulled away by Wednesday morning, however, a northern stream disturbance will approach New England along a frontal boundary, providing the focus for showers in northern New England. On Wednesday, the ridge in the jet stream will have flattened, however, a southwest flow will likely provide the warmest weather of the week on Wednesday with low 60s possible in southern and central New England and 50s elsewhere.


A southern stream disturbance will approach New England and likely pass to the south of New England. This system will likely phase with the northern stream energy and cold front. This could provide a shield of moderate to potentially heavy rainfall across a portion of New England.


1-2+ inches of rain will be possible across southern New England. The amount of phasing will determine how far north precipitation spreads. Lesser amounts will generally be seen in northern New England.



As of now, the Weather Prediction Center has southern New England in the "marginal" risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall. The rain from this system combined with rains from the last week could result in some issues for already swollen rivers as well as poor drainage flooding.


Weather Prediction Center's excessive rainfall outlook:


The timing of the cold front will be something to watch as rain in the higher elevations of northern New England could switch to a mix or snow. This would come as an area of high pressure sets up to the north of New England, which will filter cooler air into the region. At this point, not much snow (at all) is expected in northern New England and no snow is expected in southern New England. The timing and position of the cold front will ultimately determine a rain/snow line.


CMC showing potential weather Wednesday evening (1st image) and Thursday morning (2nd image). There is still some spread in models as to timing and how far north that heavier rain in southern New England will spread:


This system may last through much of Thursday, although the heaviest of rain is currently looking to fall overnight from Wednesday to Thursday morning. The system is looking likely to shut down completely by Thursday evening.



FRIDAY


New England will be looking to get a (brief) break from active weather on Friday as high pressure builds into the region. The day will be cooler than the first half of the week, but still near or slightly above seasonal averages. Clouds may even be able to clear up, allowing for the most sun of the week.


WEEKEND


Saturday may shape up to be similar to Friday. Another system will approach for the second half of the weekend and possibly going into early next week. The system looks to be a double-barrel low setup with one low lifting to the north of New England while a coastal low forms to the south of New England.


Which one of these lows becomes stronger will have an impact on temperatures and precipitation type. If the northern low is the stronger one, the storm will be more mild and rainy. If the southern low becomes the primary low, a more wintry system will be possible. The track of the southern low will also be critical. It's too soon for any details, but this will be a system to watch closely.


Model roundup (Euro, CMC, GFS and GraphCast) for Sunday. As you would expect, a massive spread remains at this stage:


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