This week will be a classic mid-spring week for New England with breezy days, cold nights and a chance for some showers.
MONDAY & TUESDAY
A ridge of high pressure will be in control of New England's weather during this time. This will bring mainly sunny skies and overall calm weather. There will be a breeze on Monday, but this will gradually relax as the high builds into the region. Tuesday afternoon will see an increase in the breeze once again as a strong southerly flow kicks in ahead of an approaching system for Wednesday.
Weather map for early Tuesday showing high pressure in control for the east:
After chilly mornings, temperatures will rebound back toward seasonable levels. Monday will be cooler as a cold front brings a chilly northwest flow. The northern tier of the region will remain cold all day. As the high shifts overhead Tuesday night, it will allow another chilly night amid light winds and clear skies. Lows will again be in the 20s north and 30s south. With the high shifting to the east on Tuesday, it will aid in a switch to a southerly flow, boosting temperatures to become a notch warmer than Monday.
WEDNESDAY
A cold front will begin to push into New England Tuesday night. A wave of low pressure will likely form along the front, bringing a round of showers to the entire region. Unlike previous storms, this one will not bring a soaking rain with multiple inches falling. This storm will bring a round of showers that will drop a general tenth of an inch to a half an inch of rain, with the most falling across northwest New England.
This will NOT be a moisture-rich system as PWAT values (basically the amount of moisture in the atmosphere that could become precipitation) will be below an inch. This does not support soaking downpours. The day is unlikely to get washed out. With that said, there will be a chance for some thunderstorms to develop as the front moves through, mainly in southern New England. Winds will also be gusty at times.
Euro showing potential weather Wednesday afternoon:
As the front passes through the region Wednesday afternoon through the night, it will bring a decent drop in temperatures. Highs Wednesday will range from the mid 40s across the northern tier to around 60° for southern New England. With the front passing western New England during the day, highs across the north may happen earlier in the day. Overnight lows into Thursday morning will range from the upper teens and 20s across northern New England and the mid 20s to low 30s in southern New England.
The higher terrain of northern New England will likely see a transition to snow (or a rain/snow mix) Wednesday afternoon and into the night as the front spills colder air into the region. This snow isn't looking to amount to much as the system is looking more progressive with precipitation pulling away by Wednesday evening.
GFS showing potential weather Wednesday evening:
There will also be much drier air on the backside of the cold front. Snowfall may reach an inch in northern Vermont and New Hampshire with 1-3 inches possible in northern Maine. The extent of frozen precipitation will hinge on just how much moisture can get wrapped around the backside of the low.
THURSDAY & FRIDAY
High pressure returns to New England after the midweek system. It will remain cool amid a post cold-front air mass and a northwest flow. It will also be yet another gusty day as the gradient between the departing low and building high remains tight. Winds should begin to relax on Friday, but it may remain breezy. Skies will be partly cloudy to mostly sunny both days.
Highs will remain cool on Thursday, especially for the northern tier of New England, where highs will top out in the 40s. Central and southern New England may be able to rebound close to seasonable levels, into the 50s. It'll be another great night for cooling Thursday night, with high pressure moving closer to being overhead. Low will again be in the 20s north and 30s south. Highs on Friday will be a notch warmer than Thursday amid a return to a more southerly flow.
Euro temperature forecasts for Thursday afternoon (1st image) and Friday afternoon (2nd image):
WEEKEND
The warming trend is looking to continue through the weekend as an upper-level ridge crests over New England. Highs are looking to get into the 60s for most with areas of southern New England potentially getting well into the 60s on Sunday. This will hinge on the timing and setup of a decaying system approaching New England. This could bring more clouds and maybe some light showers to the region, mainly on Sunday.
Weather map for Sunday morning:
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