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New England Weather This Week: Calm (after Monday) and Frosty (for some)

After the left overs from Tropical Storm Ophelia exit the region on Monday, New England will be looking at dry, mainly sunny and seasonable temperatures. This will be a great weather week for the region's autumn lovers.


MONDAY


Monday will feature more of the same for New England with rain and showers in southern New England with drier and sunnier conditions the further north you go. The remnants of Ophelia will be battling dry air today as the system very slowly pushes eastward off the coast of New Jersey.


This dry air should keep the steadiest rain south of the Mass Pike once again, with occasional light showers further north. Northern New England will see a dry day today with overcast skies at the Massachusetts border and gradual clearing as you work north.


HRRR showing the northern extent of today's showers:


Southern areas could see another quarter to half an inch of rain today. The rainfall rate will not be steady all day. Sometimes it will just be overcast while other times it will be raining heavily. Temperatures will remain cool with highs in the 60s just about everywhere. The Champlain Valley of Vermont will be the warmest spot in the region today and stand the best chance of breaking into the low 70s.


The first frost advisories of the season have been issued for New England for Monday night to Tuesday morning. The advisory is in effect for parts of Aroostook and Penobscot Counties in Maine. Morning lows could drop into the mid 30s.



TUESDAY


Tuesday will be the transition day from the cloudy, unsettled weather to sunnier and dry weather. High pressure will build into New England from Canada while the remnants of Ophelia track southward, away from New England. This will lead to continued dry conditions in northern areas with gradual clearing in southern New England.



The day will start off overcast for southern areas before turning partly cloudy for the afternoon. The exception will be the immediate south coast of New England, which will likely hang onto the clouds for nearly the entire day.


Temperatures will remain cool, and will actually get a bit cooler after the low pressure system departs thanks to the location of the high pressure, which will allow for a northeast flow. It will also be breezy in southern New England, leading to a very cool, fall-like feel in the air. Winds will be calmer in northern New England.


Highs will remain in the 60s region-wide. Tuesday night to Wednesday morning may be the coolest night/morning of the week with high pressure leading to calm and clear conditions. This will allow for strong overnight cooling. Morning lows will drop into the 40s across the region with some 30s possible across the higher elevations of northern New England. More frost advisories will likely be needed for Tuesday night to Wednesday morning.



WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY


The rest of the week is looking to be very nice for all of New England, especially if you enjoy fall weather. High pressure will slowly sag into southern New England. This, along with the departing low pressure system, will lead to calmer winds in southern New England and milder temperatures.


Highs will be slightly above average for most, topping out in the upper 60s to low 70s under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies and calm winds for Wednesday and Thursday. These conditions will once again allow for cool nights with 40s dominating for lows.


Friday may turn cloudier for southern New England as an area low pressure may track to New England's south, with the high pressure over New England keeping the moisture suppressed. Right now, it looks like some more clouds may get into New England for Friday, but the day is looking dry across the region.


Canadian Model showing rain passing to New England's south Friday. Right now, it looks like high pressure will win the battle and keep New England dry, but this will need to be watched:



WEEKEND (and beyond)


With the system mentioned above looking to be suppressed to New England's south, the weekend is currently looking dry. The high pressure that will dominate the weather this week for New England will likely begin to break down, but another high moving from the west may takes its place.


Highs are looking to be similar to Wednesday through Friday, with upper 60s to low 70s across the region for Saturday and Sunday, with Sunday looking to be the warmer of the two days. There are hints of a warming trend heading into next week.


GFS showing temperatures 5-10 degrees above average for Monday, October 2nd. All models are showing above average weather for much of the week:




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