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New England Weather This Week: Flipping the Script

This week will feature a significant pattern change from what New England has been experiencing over the past couple weeks. This change will bring sunnier and warmer weather to the entire region.


Monday will act as sort of a transition day for New England as a warmer air mass builds in aloft and a ridge in the jet stream develops over the eastern United States. This will allow temperatures to begin to climb for New England. High pressure will bring sunnier skies, though it will likely end up more partly cloudy than full sunshine as the day starts off cloudy. This high pressure will be positioned just offshore in the Gulf of Maine.

This will continue an easterly flow for eastern New England, keeping the coastal plain cooler than the rest. Highs will range from the mid 60s near the coast to near 80° well inland in the valleys. The immediate coast could even get held in the 50s for one more day. Highs, especially near the coast, will be determined by how long it takes for the clouds to break apart.


On Tuesday, a westerly flow aloft and a southwest flow at the surface combined with strengthening ridging in the jet stream, the warmest weather of the young season will arrive. It will likely start off mainly cloudy once again and these clouds may take a few hours to begin to break up after daybreak. This flip in the pattern will allow for widespread 80s across New England with the 70s along the immediate coast. Cape Cod and Maine's coast will be much cooler due to the southerly flow proving a more onshore breeze for them.

Wednesday will be the peak of the heat with the air mass aloft climbing to its highest point. Highs will be in the 80s for most across the region with the south coast, Cape Cod and the Midcoast northward once again being held back due to the sea breeze, though it should still get warmer than Tuesday. Highs flirting with 90° will be possible in the valleys of southern and central New England.

The remnants of a system will pass to the north of New England, through Quebec, on Tuesday. This will bring an increase in clouds to the northern tier and the chance for scattered showers and storms. The threat will be highest across the northern third of New England with lowering chances as you work south. These will likely fire from mid-afternoon through the first half of Tuesday night. There remains uncertainty in just how widespread this activity will be able to get.

There remains major discrepancies in the extent and exact timing of showers and storms. Right now, we're leaning toward less activity in the afternoon and more toward the evening. There will be elements in place that support thunderstorm activity across the north and the Storm Prediction Center has placed northern areas in a "marginal" (level 1 of 5) threat for severe thunderstorms.

Another weakening system may round the ridge on Wednesday, bringing another round of scattered showers and storms to northern New England Wednesday evening. The extent of these, along with the amount of left cloud cover from the previous system, will have an effect on high temperatures Wednesday for northern areas.


During the day Thursday, a cold front will get dragged through the region. This will kick start a downward trend in temperatures. It will also likely bring with it scattered showers and thunderstorms, this time, for most of New England rather than being limited to northern New England like earlier in the week. The timing of this front will determine how high temperatures can get on Thursday with eastern New England more likely to see another very warm day than western New England.

The timing will also affect the extent and potency of storms. Areas that see the most storm activity in the early to mid afternoon will have the best chance for widespread storms and strong storms. As of now, this doesn't look like much of a severe storm event, but we'll be watching the trends this week.

Friday will be a return to more seasonable temperatures across New England with highs mainly in the 70s with perhaps some low 80s for southern and central New England. The cold front will also bring down humidity levels. While the humidity on Tuesday through Thursday won't reach oppressive, mid-summer type levels, it will be noticeably drier on Friday and heading into the weekend.


Memorial Weekend will likely see continued falling temperatures as high pressure builds in from the north. This high has been trending weaker. If the high continues this trend, it could end up warmer over the weekend. Sunday looks cooler than Saturday with more clouds around as a system approaches. Both Saturday and Sunday are looking dry right now. This system could bring showers to the region Sunday night into Memorial Day. This comes as the ridge begins to flatten and flow becomes more zonal once again.



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