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New England Weather This Week: Mixed Bag

This week will be a mixed bag of weather with wet and chilly times as well as dry and warmer times. See the details below.


MONDAY


This week will begin chilly, wet and raw. An area of low pressure will cross southern New England throughout the day. This will lead to showers throughout the day for all of New England. The showers will likely be on and off rather than a continuous all day rain. The showers will gradually wind down from west to east starting in the afternoon. Rainfall amounts will be rather light with no more than a half inch expected.


Cold temperatures across northern Maine will support the first snowfall of the season outside of the mountain tops for New England. Snow will continue to fill in across northern Maine through the morning before winding down from west to east starting in the mid-afternoon. Most in the area will see 1-4 inches of snow with locally higher amounts across the higher terrain, particularly in the Mt. Katadhin area.




Highs will remain chilly for most, with 50s in southern New England and the low 40s to about 50 in (most of) northern New England. Northern Maine will be held in the mid 30s amid the snow. A warm front associated with the storm system may push into far southern New England. If this happens, southern Connecticut, southern Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts could push into the mid 60s. There could be a 30+° difference in highs from southernmost New England to northernmost New England.





TUESDAY


The storm system will push away from New England for Halloween with high pressure building into the region. This will lead to dry and generally bright weather for the holiday. It will, however, be chilly. High temperatures continue a downward trend. Highs will top out in the 40s for most, with some spots in northern New England failing to break out of the 30s. Southernmost New England might be able to crack 50.


Temperatures Tuesday afternoon:


Tuesday evening will be quite chilly for trick-or-treating. Feels-like temperatures will likely hang around the 30s across the region. Tuesday night will see New England's next system begin to approach (albeit not very close).



WEDNESDAY


Over the past few days, we've been watching a potential storm for the middle of this week. We mentioned that models were highly divided, with some showing potentially some mixed winter precipitation across southern New England and others barely showing anything. All models are now starting to trend the storm further offshore.


Euro vs GFS, starting to look more alike for Wednesday afternoon:


This would lead to less coverage of showers and a lower chance of widespread mixed precipitation. Some rain showers remain in the forecast, with some snow showers in the higher elevations of Vermont, New Hampshire and maybe Massachusetts. Overall, this storm is not looking to have much of an impact on the region.


Temperatures will remain cool. Wednesday will likely be the chilliest day of the week with highs in the 40s south and the 30s north. Wednesday night to Thursday morning will be the coldest of the season for most, with widespread 20s and 30s.


THURSDAY & FRIDAY


The weather then looks to quiet back down for the end of the week as an expansive area of high pressure looks to set up to the south of New England. This will allow temperatures to go into a warming trend, likely bringing the region back to near-average temperatures by Friday. Thursday may still be cool, but warmer than Tuesday and Wednesday for most.


Temperature departure from average for Friday afternoon, showing near average temperatures likely:


Thursday and Friday will also be dry with partly cloudy skies. The days will, overall, be pleasant for early November.



WEEKEND


The warming trend currently looks to continue into the weekend. Temperatures will not shoot up to record levels like this past weekend, but the region could be looking at more 50s and 60s rather than 40s and 50s like earlier in the week. A frontal boundary will likely begin tracking toward northern New England, which would keep the northern third of the region cooler.


When this front crosses New England, as well as any precipitation associated with it remains an uncertainty, but the passage will more likely be later in the weekend or early next week. This would allow warmer and drier weather for the weekend. Right now, the front doesn't look to be much of a rain maker for New England. The exact timing of this front will determine this weekend's weather. If the front trends toward a faster arrival time, it would lead toward cooler and more showery weather, especially for northern areas. As always, we'll be watching the trends.


Weather map for this Saturday, showing the front to New England's north:



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