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New England Weather This Week: Mostly Seasonable; Watching Storms

This week will feature a change in pace from the weather pattern we've been stuck in over the past several days. We'll also be watching a couple of storms, one of which looks to slide offshore on Thursday. Here's the details:


MONDAY-WEDNESDAY


A shift in the overall pattern will bring New England drier and cooler weather to start the new year. A cold front will drop through the region Monday, providing a colder New Year's Day for northern areas. The front will fizzle out as it makes its way south, so central and southern New England will not see as cold of weather on Monday. Highs will likely get locked in the 20s across the northern tier with highs getting to the mid 30s to near 40 in central and southern areas.


A disturbance will slide out of the Mid-Atlantic on Monday and dive south of New England. This will bring some clouds to southern New England, but precipitation is expected to remain out of our area.


Weather map for New Year's Day, showing the cold front and southern disturbance:


New England is entering into a more progressive, zonal flow. This means the setup will be "flat", allowing any disturbances will move through New England quickly with little to no impact. This will keep the region mainly calm for the week. Tuesday and Wednesday will be mostly quiet with variable clouds. A quick disturbance will likely pass to New England's north late Tuesday into Wednesday. This will bring northern areas more clouds and maybe a spot snow shower to the mountains.


CMC showing the northern disturbance Wednesday morning. As you can see, its not very impressive:


There will be a slight warming trend after New Year's Day with temperatures rising a couple degrees warmer than the last on Tuesday and Wednesday.



THURSDAY


On Friday, we brought up the potential for a coastal storm to impact New England around Thursday of this week. We mentioned that many models were pushing the storm well offshore. The trends have continued to push this storm offshore of New England, leading to a low-impact system for New England.


While the offshore track would keep the heavier precipitation offshore, New England is still looking at the potential for scattered, lighter snow and rain showers on Thursday into Thursday night with little to no accumulations. Thursday will also likely start a cooling trend.


CMC showing the storm pass well offshore Thursday afternoon. Other major models generally agree with this:


FRIDAY


While some uncertainty remains with the details of the Thursday storm, there is strong confidence in a surge of colder air behind the storm. The day itself may not be too cold with near to slightly below average temperatures, but there will likely be cold northwest wind. High pressure looks to build back in with a dry and generally sunny day.



WEEKEND


The first half of the weekend is looking dry and seasonable. The weather becomes more questionable for the second half, with a potential coastal storm looming. Should the pattern remain fairly progressive, this storm could get pushed south and keep the majority of impacts away from New England, similar to Thursday.


If the storm does come closer to New England, it would likely bring the most precipitation to southern New England. There's plenty up in the air with this storm, it's just something to keep an eye on for now.


What Euro, CMC, GFS and GraphCast show for Sunday afternoon. Much can change with these outcomes, we'll be watching the trends as always:



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