New England has a mostly quiet week ahead, aside from a speed bump around mid-week (and a very small one overnight Monday). Today (Sunday) will see variable clouds around all day with the chance of some brief, pop-up showers around.
MONDAY
On Monday, high pressure will build into New England from the west. This will bring New England a reprieve from the soggy, unsettled weather we've seen as of late. It'll be a quiet day with sunny to partly cloudy skies. Highs will be very pleasant, some may even put Monday's temperatures in the "perfect weather" category. Highs will hang around the 70s across the entire region, with mid-70s dominating.
Monday night, a weak system to our south will send a small plume of moisture into the northeast. Right now, it looks like showers will be confined to western New England and the White Mountains overnight Monday to Tuesday, with northern Vermont seeing the most activity. This is a very minor overnight disturbance and will not have much of an impact.
HRRR showing some shower activity in northern Vermont late Monday night:
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
An area of low pressure will cross New England during this time, leading to a lot of clouds and showery, unsettled weather. Eariler, we mentioned that we would have to watch Hurricane Franklin to see if it would come close enough to inject tropical moisture into this system. This is now looking very possible. This overall setup is very conducive for heavy, tropical-like rain over the Gulf of Maine. This means coastal areas will have the best chance for heavy rain, with these chances generally diminishing as you move away from the coastline. It will be possible that there's some enhancement over central Massachusetts, leading to heavier rain there as well, we need to keep watching.
Chances for showers will generally increase Tuesday afternoon before the bulk of the rain comes in sometime Tuesday night into Wednesday. The exact timing, along with how far the steady rain makes it inland, needs to be hammered down, but Wednesday could be a washout for eastern and coastal areas. Thunderstorms will also be possible Wednesday afternoon. Rain will shut down generally from west to east. Western areas away from the coast are looking at a cloudy and unsettled Wednesday. Again, timing and impacts of this system needs to be hammered down over the next 12-24 hours.
Euro model showing the heaviest rain in the Gulf of Maine. Some of that heavy rain will likely pivot into coastal areas:
THURSDAY-SATURDAY
Once the mid-week system passes through, high pressure will quickly build back into the region. Overall very quiet weather is expected during this period with pleasant temperatures. Thursday will be the coolest during this timeframe with a gradual warming trend expected through the weekend. Highs in the 70s will be most common in New England Thursday and Friday with a return to the 80s possible on Saturday. Thursday may feel raw in northern areas with a cool northerly wind and temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s.
There may be a weak disturbance that brings scattered showers to the northern tier of New England on Saturday, but, other than that, this period is looking basically precipitation free with variable clouds to mostly sunny skies.
New England very quiet late this week under high pressure:
TRACKING THE TROPICS
As mentioned above, Hurricane Franklin is poised to inject some tropical moisture into an incoming system for New England mid-week. The hurricane is forecast to reach major hurricane status, with a category four storm possible. The storm itself will stay well offshore of the United States, but will likely send large waves and rip currents into New England.
Tropical Depression 10 in the Gulf of Mexico (soon to become Tropical Storm Idalia) is forecast to become a category one hurricane and make landfall in northwest Florida. The storm will then move back over the Atlantic, but will in all likelihood be suppressed to New England's south due to the aforementioned high pressure over our region late this week.
There is another disturbance in the Atlantic, but this system is no longer expected to develop into anything.