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New England Weather This Week: Overall Pleasant (and mostly dry!)

New England is currently in a blissful break from rain and thunderstorms, and this break will continue through much of the upcoming week. A powerful heat dome will set up across the country's midsection. This will lead to another brutal heat wave for the central United States. As for New England, we'll be caught in between the influence of this heat dome and the influence of a trough of low pressure over eastern Canada. This will lead to cooler than average, but overall very pleasant weather for the region.




MONDAY


On Monday, the general set up shown above will just be getting its act together. Much of New England will see a repeat of Sunday with southern and central New England with temperatures getting well into the 80s. A cold front will be dropping into New England through the day. This front will cross northern areas in the morning. This will limit highs to the low to mid 70s in these areas. All of New England will see more clouds on Monday than Sunday.


In a blissful change in pace, the passage of this front will be mainly dry. Scattered, pop-up showers will be possible across northern New England as the front passes and southern New England could see widely scattered thunderstorms late in the day. Many areas will remain dry all day, and the areas that do see showers will be dry a vast majority of the day. Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding will be non-issues.



TUESDAY-THURSDAY


The middle of the week is when the pattern above will be at its strongest. New England will be under the influence of an area of high pressure. This will lead to dry conditions with low humidity. This will also lead to cool, and in places, crisp nights. As stated before, New England will be in between the hot and cool air masses.


This will likely lead to slightly cooler than average weather, but nothing notably cool. 70s will dominate the week, with northern Maine possibly being held to the 60s. Some parts of southern New England could even touch 80 for a time in the afternoon. The overall temperature spread will be very traditional: highest in southwest areas with highs gradually cooling off as you make your way north and east.


The days will be mirror images of each other for the most part with partly cloudy skies. On Wednesday, the center of the high pressure will be closest to New England, which will likely make Wednesday a mostly sunny day.



FRIDAY


By Friday, the high pressure will slip offshore and be replaced by an approaching low pressure. While there's still disagreement on timing, it's looking like late Thursday into Friday will be more cloudy and showery. While, this will lead to cooler temperatures, the flow will allow for humidity to increase once again. At this time, Friday doesn't look like a washout, more like scattered showers with dry times mixed in.


A showery day on Friday. We'll need to keep watching to nail down timing:



WEEKEND


It's looking increasingly likely that the associated cold front with the system on Friday will stall out amid a blocked up pattern. This would lead to continued cloudy and showery weather into the weekend. Temperatures are looking to remain cool, but humid.


This cooler pattern may peak this upcoming weekend into early next week with widespread highs in the upper 60s to low 70s possible. Being this far out, we'll need to keep watching to see just how cool it will be as these temperatures could trend up during the week, especially as dew points are looking to remain elevated, at least through Sunday. These elevated dew points would prevent chilly nights (say lows in the 40s and low 50s) despite the cooler day time highs.



WATCHING THE TROPICS


The remnants of Hurricane Hilary (which is currently bearing down on southern California) are looking to track north into Canada and then turn eastward and track to New England's north sometime next week.


Hurricane Hilary spaghetti models:


After a quiet first half of August, the Atlantic is really starting to wake up. Tropical Storm Emily, Tropical Depression 6 and three areas of interest are currently swirling around.



All of these potential systems ("X") could see gradual organizing over the course of this week. Tropical Storm Emily is looking to stay well away from the east coast and will see gradual weakening. Tropical Depression Six is expected to dissipate by Monday.


The red X has the highest chance of development with a tropical depression likely to form within a couple days. Many models are showing very gradual strengthening is possible after the depression forms. None of these systems pose an immediate threat to the United States, but we'll need to keep an eye on them. The orange X in the Gulf of Mexico may lead to heavy downpours and some flooding in south Texas this week.


All current spaghetti models for each system:



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